Russia has now sold over 71% of the gold reserves held inside its National Wealth Fund (NWF) to finance war spending.$XAU
The NWF is Russia’s emergency reserve — used when oil revenues fall or spending surges.
Before the war, it held over $113B in liquid assets.
Today, it’s down to ~$50B.
➡️ More than half of Russia’s financial buffer is already gone.
⚔️ War Now Costs More Than Energy Earns
For the first time in decades:
💥 Russia’s military budget now exceeds its total oil & gas revenue.
Oil once funded everything.
Now, war spending is outpacing energy income.
📉 Energy Revenues Are Collapsing
🔻 Down 22% YoY in 2025
🔻 November alone: –34%
🛢️ Bigger discounts on Russian crude
🚫 Sanctions tightening logistics & payments
💸 Budget Deficit Is Exploding
Planned deficit: 1.2 trillion rubles
Revised deficit: 5.7 trillion rubles
That’s a 5x jump in one year.
This is why Russia is liquidating gold inside the NWF.
⏳ The Clock Is Ticking
At current burn rates, economists estimate:
🕒 The liquid portion of the NWF runs out by mid-2026.
That’s the real timeline markets should be watching.
🧨 What Happens Next?
When the fund is depleted, Russia has only four options:
1️⃣ Cut war spending
2️⃣ Print money → inflation surge
3️⃣ Raise taxes → recession risk
4️⃣ Increase domestic debt → rising interest costs
None are painless.
🌍 Why This Is a Global Risk
This isn’t about financial contagion.
It’s about supply shocks.
Russia still controls critical commodities:
⚛️ 40% of uranium enrichment
🌾 24% of global wheat exports
🌱 18% of fertilizers
💎 40% of palladium supply
⚠️ Bottom Line
Russia is running out of money.
But it still controls key resources the world depends on.
That combination makes this a geopolitical and commodity-market time bomb.
