Market Structure:
The market is currently in a Volatile Breakout & Retest phase. The pair recently witnessed a massive liquidity grab (wick down to 0.00723) followed by an aggressive pump. Currently, the price is trading at 0.01511, attempting to flip a major moving average into support.
Key Technical Observations:
1. The MA(99) Battle (Trend Reversal):
The most critical aspect of this chart is the Purple Line (MA99) sitting at 0.01499. The price has just broken above this level. For a bullish trend to be confirmed, the daily candle must close above this line. Currently, it is hovering right on top of it, acting as a "Support Test."
2. Price Rejection (Long Upper Wick):
The current daily candle shows a very long Upper Wick, indicating that the price tried to push higher (towards 0.023+) but faced heavy selling pressure (Profit Taking). This creates a "Shooting Star" type sentiment, meaning bulls are struggling to maintain the highs.
3. Moving Average Support:
While the price was rejected from the top, it is still finding strong support from the MA(25) at 0.01379 (Pink Line). The gap between the current price and the MAs suggests volatility is high, and a consolidation is needed.
4. Volume Surge:
The volume bars show a significant spike, confirming active institutional participation. The volatility indicates a battle between buyers and sellers, with the 0.0150 zone being the decisive battlefield.
📊 TRADE SETUP (High Risk / Volatility Play)
⚠️ Warning: Due to the long upper wick, there is selling pressure. This setup is valid only if the price holds above the MA(99).
Trend: 🟡 Neutral to Bullish (Pending Confirmation)
Strategy: Breakout Retest / Scalp
🎯 Entry Zone:
Safe Entry: 0.0148 - 0.0151 (Buying the retest of the MA99 Support).
Dip Buy: 0.0138 (If it falls to the MA25 support).
💰 Take Profit Targets (TP):
TP 1: 0.0165 (Immediate resistance / recovering the wick).
TP 2: 0.0190 (Mid-range target).
TP 3: 0.0230 (Retesting the recent wick high).
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
SL: 0.0135 (A close below the MA25 would invalidate the bullish recovery).
Summary:
ARPA is currently sitting on a "Make or Break" level at 0.0150. If it holds this level, it can recover towards $0.018. If it loses this level, it will likely drop back to $0.0138
