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Nem todo cripto beneficiará o que está por vir. Em 6 de outubro de 2025, o mercado de cripto perdeu quase 1 trilhão de dólares, com cerca de 50 bilhões de dólares liquidados. De acordo com Raoul Pal, as exchanges tiveram que intervir e comprar ativos que normalmente não comprariam, e agora essas posições estão sendo vendidas lentamente. É uma das razões pelas quais o mercado está enfrentando forte volatilidade. Dados de longo prazo compartilhados por Benjamin Cowen também destacam tendências anuais importantes a ter em mente.
De uma perspectiva mais ampla, nem todas as moedas são esperadas para se mover em direção positiva. Infelizmente, as tensões geopolíticas globais estão aumentando, o que está adicionando mais incerteza aos mercados. Estamos vendo uma maior envolvimento e pressão dos EUA em diferentes regiões, incluindo Irã, Groenlândia e Cuba. Esses desenvolvimentos não são favoráveis ao mercado e geralmente geram medo e instabilidade. Em tempos de incerteza como este, os mercados normalmente fazem uma das duas coisas: movem-se lateralmente e consolidam, ou tendem a cair. Por causa disso, torna-se importante identificar níveis-chave e entender para onde o Bitcoin poderia ir a seguir.

Institutional Adoption Reaches Inflection Point as Retail Capitulates
December 2025 – The cryptocurrency market has undergone a structural regime change. According to senior executives at Polygon Labs, institutional investors now account for approximately 95% of net inflows into digital assets, with retail participation collapsing to single digits.
Aishwary Gupta, Global Head of Payments & Real-World Assets at Polygon Labs, attributes the shift to two primary forces:
Maturation of Layer-2 infrastructure (notably Polygon) that meets enterprise grade requirements for scalability, cost, and regulatory auditability.
A pivot in institutional mandate from speculative beta to yield generation and operational efficiency.
Notable developments include JPMorgan’s execution of a permissioned DeFi transaction on Polygon under Project Guardian (Monetary Authority of Singapore), Ondo Finance’s rapid growth in tokenized U.S. Treasuries, and regulated staking offerings from Switzerland based AMINA Bank.
“Institutions are no longer experimenting in sandboxes,” Gupta noted. “They are deploying on public, Ethereum compatible networks that already satisfy compliance teams from day one.”
The concurrent retail exodus is largely attributed to losses sustained during the 2024 meme coin cycle and a broader erosion of confidence in unregulated venues.
Gupta remains optimistic about an eventual retail return, contingent on the proliferation of regulated, yield bearing products such as tokenized money-market funds and on-chain ETFs.
On the frequently voiced concern that institutionalization threatens decentralization, Gupta counters that risk emerges only from private or permissioned chains, not from increased participation on open networks. “TradFi is not capturing crypto; it is migrating on chain,” he said.
Looking ahead, market participants should expect:
Continued expansion of real world asset tokenization
Declining volatility as capital allocation shifts from speculation to duration matched yield
Heightened focus on cross chain interoperability solutions
In short, 2025 marks crypto’s transition from retail-driven casino to institutional-grade financial infrastructure.
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