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Aqui está o mais recente sobre a história dos fluxos de fundos cripto de $2.17 bilhões — um evento importante nos mercados de ativos digitais esta semana:
The Block
Cryptonews
Produtos globais de investimento em cripto registram $2.2B em fluxos semanais, mesmo com as inquietações geopolíticas afetando o humor no final da semana: CoinShares | The Block
Fundos Cripto Veem $2.17B em Fluxos, o Maior Desde Outubro de 2025
Hoje
📊 O que Aconteceu
Produtos de investimento em cripto — incluindo ETFs e outros fundos regulamentados — viram cerca de $2.17 bilhões em fluxos líquidos na semana passada, o maior total semanal desde Outubro de 2025. �

According to data from SoSoValue, the 11 U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $1.2 billion in net inflows since the beginning of this month, marking a sharp reversal from the persistent outflows observed throughout December.
While this figure is already positive from a capital flow perspective, a deeper analysis of the underlying market structure reveals an even more important signal: institutional investors appear to be shifting away from traditional arbitrage strategies and toward direct, long-term exposure to Bitcoin’s price appreciation.
This shift suggests that the recent ETF inflows may be more structurally bullish than similar inflows seen earlier in the year.
Cash-and-Carry Arbitrage Is Losing Its Appeal
For an extended period, institutional investors favored the cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy—a relatively low-risk and capital-efficient approach. This strategy exploits the price difference between the spot Bitcoin market and Bitcoin futures.
In practice, investors would buy spot Bitcoin ETFs while simultaneously shorting Bitcoin futures, locking in a predefined spread. Profits were not dependent on Bitcoin’s price rising, but rather on the convergence between spot and futures prices as contracts approached maturity.
This approach dominated ETF flows for much of 2024, particularly when futures traded at a significant premium.
However, recent data indicates that new inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are no longer being driven by arbitrage activity.
Shrinking Price Basis Pushes Arbitrage Returns Toward Zero
Despite the strong $1.2 billion net inflow into spot ETFs, open interest in Bitcoin futures—both standard and micro contracts—on the CME has surged by 33%, reaching 55,947 contracts.
Under normal conditions, rising ETF inflows combined with increasing futures open interest would strongly suggest renewed cash-and-carry trades. This time, however, the relationship has broken down.
Market analysts note that the basis, or price spread between CME Bitcoin futures and the spot ETF market, has narrowed to levels that barely cover transaction costs and funding expenses. In many cases, arbitrage returns are effectively neutral or even negative after accounting for capital costs.
As a result, the incentive to deploy capital into arbitrage strategies has largely disappeared.
Low Volatility Is Further Suppressing Arbitrage Opportunities
Another critical factor reducing the attractiveness of arbitrage is the sharp decline in Bitcoin price volatility.
Since the significant correction from Bitcoin’s all-time high in October last year, BTC has largely traded sideways around the $90,000 region, with limited directional movement.
Low volatility reduces the likelihood of large and sustained price discrepancies between spot and futures markets. According to the BVIV index from Volmex, Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility has fallen to approximately 40%, its lowest level since October.
This decline indicates that market participants expect fewer sharp price swings in the near term—further diminishing arbitrage potential.
“Sticky Capital” and a Long-Term Investment Shift
This evolving dynamic represents a meaningful shift in Bitcoin’s market microstructure—and a constructive one.
Capital is still flowing into spot Bitcoin ETFs, but the nature of that capital has changed. Instead of short-term, strategy-driven inflows, the new money appears to be more “sticky,” with investors positioning for longer holding periods and direct exposure to Bitcoin’s long-term growth thesis.
In a low-volatility environment, many institutional investors feel more comfortable allocating to alternative assets like Bitcoin—particularly as BTC has underperformed both equities and precious metals over the same period, improving its relative valuation appeal.
Institutional Speculators Re-Engage With Futures Markets
CME futures data also shows that the recent increase in open interest is primarily driven by non-commercial traders, commonly classified as large institutional speculators, rather than hedge funds executing arbitrage strategies.
Holdings of Bitcoin futures by this group have risen to over 22,000 contracts, reflecting improved price expectations and renewed bullish positioning.
In contrast, leveraged funds—traditionally responsible for shorting futures as part of cash-and-carry trades—have been reducing their short exposure, reinforcing the view that arbitrage activity continues to unwind.
Conclusion
Taken together, the data suggests that capital is returning to Bitcoin with a fundamentally different intention than before.
Instead of extracting small, low-risk profits from price inefficiencies, institutional investors are increasingly making directional bets on Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation, primarily through regulated spot ETFs and futures markets.
This type of capital is slower-moving but more durable. In a low-volatility environment, it may serve as a foundational base for future upside, supporting Bitcoin’s price action over the medium to long term.
Disclaimer:
This article is for informational purposes only and reflects personal market observations. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile, and readers should conduct their own independent research before making any investment decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any financial outcomes.
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