portugal

Portuguese authorities have moved to restrict access to the prediction platform Polymarket just days after the dramatic first round of the country’s presidential elections. The intervention comes at a time when the platform recorded exceptionally high trading volumes linked directly to the election outcome. Regulators have also indicated that restrictions could soon extend to other areas of Polymarket’s operations.
As a result, Polymarket now finds itself operating outside the legal framework of the Portuguese market, potentially pushing local users to seek alternative ways to access prediction markets. The national gambling regulator rejected the platform’s argument that Polymarket functions as an investment or trading tool rather than a form of betting.
The regulator issued an order requiring Polymarket to halt all operations in Portugal within 48 hours. This move mirrors a recent decision by France, which restricted the platform after a local user gained notoriety for accurately predicting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
Before Portugal, both Ukraine and Romania had already taken steps to limit Polymarket’s operations. The latest action reinforces the growing scrutiny faced by prediction platforms, which are increasingly being classified by regulators as gambling services.
The decision followed shortly after the first round of Portugal’s presidential election, a highly polarized contest that brought António José Seguro and André Ventura to the forefront.

Regulatory Action Follows a Surge in Platform Popularity
As in France, Portuguese regulators intervened precisely as Polymarket was gaining rapid traction among local users. The trigger for the crackdown was the high-volume prediction markets centered on the presidential election.
The platform has faced criticism due to the widespread dissemination of its data on social media. Some observers argue that publicly visible election forecasts may influence voter behavior and compromise the neutrality of the electoral process. Regulators therefore emphasized that Polymarket does not hold a gambling license and that political betting is prohibited under Portuguese law.
Beyond its financial function, Polymarket is widely used as a real-time sentiment indicator. Political markets are among the platform’s most liquid and active, attracting both speculators and analysts. However, this transparency and instant feedback may paradoxically influence election dynamics themselves.

Second Round Remains Under Close Watch
Despite regulatory pressure, Polymarket continues to be closely monitored as new prediction markets have emerged for the second round of Portugal’s presidential election, scheduled for February 8.
Trading volume on the market predicting the eventual winner has already surpassed $121 million, with António José Seguro currently listed as the frontrunner. Market activity continues to accelerate, even as authorities retain the option to block access for local traders at any moment.

According to Portuguese media reports, regulatory oversight intensified after Polymarket traded approximately $4 million in positions shortly before the official announcement of first-round results.
“The website is not authorized to offer betting services in Portugal, and under national law, betting on political events—whether domestic or international—is prohibited,” the gambling regulator SRIJ stated.
The regulator also acknowledged that it became aware of Polymarket’s activities only recently and raised concerns about potential insider trading and the misuse of exit poll data.
Although Polymarket remained accessible in Portugal as of Monday—via cryptocurrency wallets or technical workarounds—the regulatory action once again raises broader questions about how prediction markets will be treated going forward and whether they will continue to be classified as gambling platforms.

#Polymarket , #Portugal , #Polymarket , #blockchain , #CryptoNews

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