Black Friday's Long/Short Life-and-Death Game is on Tonight!
1. The fate of the global capital markets hangs by two swords of Damocles:
1. 21:30 Beijing Time - US Non-Farm Payroll Report
2. 03:00 - Powell's Monetary Policy Statement
2. How will the turbulent waves of data and policy shake the market? The following four possibilities will determine tonight's direction:
1. Non-Farm Payroll Shock, Policy Soothing (Probability 25%)
If employment data collapses dramatically, Powell may urgently release dovish signals, leading to a deep V-shaped roller coaster in the market. The index may plummet 4% instantly, breaking through key support, and then rebound under the expectation of policy support. However, historical experience shows that the prosperity following such a “shot in the arm” often foreshadows a chronic adjustment with slow declines next week.
2. Stable Data, Dovish Tone (Probability 35%)
If the Non-Farm data meets expectations, combined with a warm policy breeze, tech stocks may see a retaliatory rebound. The Nasdaq is expected to recover 500 points of lost ground. However, caution is needed for the “expected bottom support” trap—once the market prices in interest rate cut expectations, any minor disturbance could trigger a second collapse.
3. Double Kill Nuclear Bomb, Liquidity Crisis (Probability 20%)
A snowballing of Non-Farm data, coupled with an unexpected hawkish surprise from Powell, will bring bloodshed to the capital market on “Black Friday.” The index may plunge 7%, triggering a chain reaction of programmatic trading liquidations. After the excessive decline, there may be a technical repair, but referring to the 2023 bear market cycle, subsequent adjustments could last up to a hundred days.
4. Stable Data, Hawkish Surprise (Probability 20%)
Non-Farm data remains calm, yet Powell insists on striking the market, leading to fierce hand-to-hand combat between bulls and bears within a narrow range. There may be a “rise and then fall” killing trend during the day, but the real killing opportunity lies in the shift after the sideways movement—like the calm before the storm, capital is quietly re-positioning. Retail investors, like startled birds, may find any fluctuation could become the final blow to their confidence.