$BTC could be about to break all expectations, and not due to empty speculation, but due to hard data. Despite the highly unstable global economic climate, renowned economist Timothy Peterson has suggested that Bitcoin could climb to $138,000 in just three months. The surprising thing is that his analysis is based on a statistical correlation that has not been seen before between Bitcoin and the US dollar, making the forecast even more intriguing and worth following closely.
In his latest analysis published on April 18, Peterson presented a projection based on the behavior of the effective yield of the US High Yield index, which currently exceeds 8%. Based on historical data since 2010, he found that every time these conditions have occurred, Bitcoin has had a positive performance in 71% of cases within a three-month period, with an average gain of 31%. Even in negative scenarios, losses were quite limited, not exceeding 16%.
The most interesting thing about this outlook is that, according to Peterson, based on this trend, it is very likely that Bitcoin will move between $75,000 and $138,000 in the next 90 days. This would imply that Bitcoin would need to climb approximately 62% to reach that ceiling, something that would seem crazy to many, but in this context makes quite a bit of sense. The crypto community is already starting to get excited about the idea that a new bullish wave similar to that of early 2021 is approaching.
It is worth noting that Peterson has been a constant analyst in this field and has contributed to several projections about the future of Bitcoin. One of his best-known tools, the so-called Lowest Price Forward, assigned a 95% probability that Bitcoin would not fall below $69,000 in March. This type of modeling has given some credibility to his estimates, which are now generating discussions among investors and enthusiasts again.
Another point that adds strength to his prediction is the current correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY, the index that measures the strength of the US dollar against other currencies. In 2024, both assets began to behave very similarly, which is atypical, as historically they have been inversely proportional. Peterson explains that this is not due to a direct causality, but because both the dollar and Bitcoin are reacting to the same macroeconomic tensions: low liquidity, high real rates, and widespread fear of risk.
This phenomenon could be temporary, according to the economist, who believes that Bitcoin will eventually decouple from the behavior of the dollar. When that happens, and real yields begin to fall, Bitcoin could be propelled strongly by the return of liquidity to the system. In fact, many analysts are already starting to point out that the weakening of the dollar could directly benefit the crypto asset, just as it happened at the beginning of the bullish run in 2023.
The DXY has remained below the psychological barrier of 100 points, according to data from Cointelegraph and TradingView, marking levels not seen in almost three years. This structural weakness, combined with the trade uncertainty in the United States, opens the door for Bitcoin to position itself as a safe haven amid the chaos. Increasingly, conditions seem to align for the world's most famous digital asset to regain prominence.
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