ADP

Super Data Week is Coming, Non-Farm Payrolls and PCE Will Follow

Looking ahead to next week, although the Federal Reserve has entered its 'quiet period' and the domestic market is about to enter the May Day holiday, there are still many important events on the agenda. Here are the key points the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 22:30, U.S. April Dallas Fed Business Activity Index

Tuesday 22:00, U.S. March JOLTs Job Openings, April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index

Wednesday 09:30, China April Official Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday 09:45, China April Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Wednesday 17:00, Eurozone Q1 GDP Year-on-Year Preliminary

Wednesday 20:15, U.S. April ADP Employment Change

Wednesday 20:30, U.S. Q1 Labor Cost Index QoQ, Q1 Real GDP Annualized QoQ Preliminary, Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures QoQ Preliminary, Q1 Core PCE Price Index Annualized QoQ Preliminary

Wednesday 22:00, U.S. March PCE Price Data, March Personal Spending MoM, March Existing Home Sales Index MoM

Thursday 19:30, U.S. April Challenger Job Cuts

Thursday 21:45, U.S. April S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final

Friday 20:30, U.S. April Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Payrolls, April Unemployment Rate

The ADP employment report, known as the 'little non-farm' report, will also be released next Wednesday, along with the latest PCE inflation and consumption data. However, the real focus will be on the non-farm payroll report scheduled for release next Friday, where speculation about when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates is very intense. Non-farm payroll growth is expected to slow from 228,000 in March to 130,000 in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2%. Average wages in April are expected to increase by 0.3% month-on-month. For the U.S. dollar, a series of concerning data is almost certainly negative, but for U.S. stocks, if hopes for interest rate cuts rise and market sentiment is not overshadowed by recession worries, the market may rise.