Below is a detailed technical analysis of Initia (INIT) at the current time (April 29, 2025) and a proposal for a short position strategy, including an assessment of the probability of success based on technical indicators and market data:
📊 Technical analysis of INIT – Short-selling signal
1. Current price and volatility
• Current price: $0.7931
• 24h volatility: Up 24.13%
• 24h trading volume: Approximately $297 million
• Market capitalization: Approximately $119.5 million
• Circulating supply: 149 million INIT 
2. Technical indicators
• RSI index (14 days): Approximately 60 – indicating the market is in a state of "greed", but not yet overbought.
• MACD: The MACD line is above the signal line, indicating an upward trend is being maintained.
• Moving Average (MA):
• MA20: $0.74
• MA50: $0.68
• MA200: Not enough data due to INIT being newly listed.
3. Support and resistance levels
• Strong support: $0.63 – $0.65
• Nearby resistance: $0.83 – $0.85
• Strong resistance: $0.95 (all-time high)
📈 Short position opening strategy
1. Entry point
• Suggested price: $0.84 – $0.85
• Reason: Prices are approaching a strong resistance zone, a reversal signal may appear.
2. Take Profit
• Target 1: $0.78
• Target 2: $0.74
• Target 3: $0.70
3. Stop Loss
• Suggested price: $0.86
• Reason: Price has exceeded the resistance zone, may continue the upward trend.
📊 Probability of success for short position
Based on current technical indicators and market data, the probability of success for a short position at the price range of $0.84 – $0.85 is estimated as follows:
• Probability of success: Approximately 60%
• Reason:
• Prices are approaching a strong resistance zone, a reversal signal may appear.
• The RSI index indicates that the market is in a state of "greed", but not yet overbought.
• Trading volume has increased significantly, which may lead to large price fluctuations.
⚠️ Important note
• Risk management: Use leverage cautiously; high leverage can lead to significant liquidation risk.
• Follow the news: Update the latest information about the Initia project to adjust the strategy in time.
• Portfolio diversification: Do not allocate all capital to a single asset to minimize risk.
