Simply share the current Bitcoin operational logic; I really can't stand a bunch of salespeople in the square boasting every day.
This week, we close the monthly line, along with non-farm payrolls and next week's interest rate decision. Actually, these things are not important; they are just immediate market conditions. It has long been set that there will be no interest rate cuts in May, so there's nothing to see. Old Powell's speech is nothing more than saying the economy is good, inflation is reaching the target, and he doesn't care about Trump's political economy. He won't lower interest rates due to tariffs or a stock market decline; there's no rush to cut rates, just continue to observe inflation; it's all the same old stuff. The recent expectation for a rate cut is still in June, and it's not a certainty either; at least 80% expectation for a rate cut is needed for stability.
Say why it fell this morning in the past few days. Although Bitcoin is not completely linked to the Nasdaq, there is still a certain correlation. This period is when US tech companies announce their earnings reports. This morning, SMCI's earnings report was below expectations, leading to a sharp decline, which dragged down the Nasdaq futures (NVDA) and Bitcoin.
After explaining the reason, let's talk about where to enter and where to exit. It's actually very simple; just observe and calculate; there's no need to draw lines or use indicators. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, neither going up nor down, so the amplitude won't be very large. The current Bitcoin pullback range is 1700-1800 points, so by calculating the previous high 954-17=937, the entry point is 936-937, absolutely not 935, so those salespeople hanging around 935 can be directly blacklisted. How to calculate the exit? Upwards 1200-1300, then look for round numbers, so it should be around 95000, it can't be that precise, so maintain a margin of error, 100 points up and down, thus entry is 938 and exit is 948, 950. Generally, choose even numbers for points, not odd numbers; as for the reason, it might be intuition, just observe more.
Calculations cannot be precise to the single digit, so ensure redundancy. Look at the most recent high from the hourly chart, and don't look too far. Small fluctuations are 1700-1800 points, and the daily amplitude is also around 1700-2000 points. For large fluctuations, change 1700 to 2700, applicable for weekends (weekend fluctuations are too small, two days count as one), or when the market is in a downward trend. Enter after a spike, or sometimes wait for four consecutive hour-long bearish candles, entering at the fourth bearish candle or the next hour's bullish spike.
Similarly, tomorrow morning, Microsoft, META, and Qualcomm will announce their earnings reports, which are also expected to decline. The market will be similar to this morning, and the same operations will work. The only difference is that tonight's PCE may have some delayed impact, determining whether the range goes up or down.