Market Background and Core Data
Bitcoin (BTC)
Price Dynamics: The current BTC price breaks above $97,000, with an intraday increase of nearly 3%, and a 24-hour fluctuation range of $96,192-$97,350, with a trading volume of 140 million and a circulating market value of $1.29 trillion. The technical aspect shows that the MACD histogram remains positive and is gradually lengthening, indicating increased bullish strength, but the RSI indicator is in the overbought zone (above 70), suggesting short-term pullback risks.
Market Sentiment: Institutional holdings continue to increase, BlackRock ETF holds 980,000 BTC, and retail FOMO sentiment is heating up. However, attention must be paid to the impact of Trump's policies on cryptocurrency reserves and changes in ETF capital flows.
Ethereum (ETH)
Price Dynamics: The current price of ETH is approximately $1,843, with a 24-hour decline of 0.53%, a trading volume of 27.98 million, and a circulating market value of $420 billion. The technical aspect shows that the ETH/BTC exchange rate 4-hour candlestick has a large bearish candle, the MACD histogram has turned from positive to negative, indicating bearish strength, but the MA10 is still above MA30, suggesting the trend has not completely reversed.
Ecological Progress: Pectra Upgrade Plan is advancing, the user numbers of Layer2 networks Arbitrum and Optimism hit new highs, and the TVL of DeFi protocols broke $100 billion. However, attention must be paid to the impact of new SEC regulations on staking yields, as well as the competitive pressure from public chains like Solana on ETH.
Technical and Capital Analysis
Bitcoin
Trend Judgment: Daily price is being suppressed, the MACD death cross risk still exists, but the 4-hour candlestick shows bulls attempting to break through the $97,000 resistance level. If it stabilizes at this position, it may test the psychological barrier of $100,000; if it falls below the support at $96,000, it may retrace to $94,000.
Capital Flow: Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 4,201 BTC, and institutional funds continue to increase positions. However, attention must be paid to the selling pressure from whale addresses, as a certain whale recently sold 35,000 ETH, reflecting a profit-taking mindset among some institutions.
Ethereum
Trend Judgment: The ETH/USDT exchange rate is temporarily blocked by the resistance level of $1,860; if it breaks through or returns to $2,000; if it falls below the support at $1,760, it may test $1,700. Attention should be paid to the capital diversion effect after the Layer2 network Lisk's vacant investment qualification query function goes live.
Capital Flow: ETH ETF had a net inflow of 59,538 ETH, but IntoTheBlock data shows significant selling pressure around $1,860. At the same time, a whale borrowed 5 million USDC from Aave to increase their position by 2,762 ETH, reflecting intensified market divergence.
Operational Strategy and Risk Management
Bitcoin (BTC)
Long Position Strategy: If the price stabilizes above $97,000, a light long position can be taken with a stop loss set at $96,000 and a target of $100,000. If the breakout fails, wait for a retracement near $94,000 to set up again.
Short Position Strategy: If the price falls below $96,000, a short position can be taken with a stop loss set at $97,000 and a target of $94,000. However, caution should be exercised regarding institutional support actions to avoid operating against the trend.
Ethereum (ETH)
Long Position Strategy: If the price breaks through the resistance level of $1,860, a light long position can be taken with a stop loss set at $1,820 and a target of $2,000. If the breakout fails, wait for a retracement near $1,760 to set up again.
Short Position Strategy: If the price falls below the support at $1,760, a short position can be taken with a stop loss set at $1,820 and a target of $1,700. However, attention should be paid to the support effect of the Layer2 ecosystem explosion on ETH to avoid being overly bearish.
Position Management
Building Position in Batches: It is recommended that the total position does not exceed 30%, with BTC accounting for 60% and ETH for 40%.
Stop Loss Discipline: Strictly implement stop losses to avoid deep entrapment in one-sided market conditions.
Profit Protection: If BTC rises by 10% and ETH rises by 15%, then take profits in batches to lock in gains.
The current cryptocurrency market is in a critical period of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum facing directional choices. Investors need to closely monitor technical and capital signals, develop strategies based on their risk preferences, and avoid blindly chasing rises and falls.
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