A new study from Google's quantum research team has issued a strong warning to the crypto community: future quantum computers may break RSA encryption – the security foundation not only of banks but also of Bitcoin wallets – with quantum resources less than 20 times the previously estimated amount.
Google sharply reduces qubit requirements to break RSA
Craig Gidney, a quantum researcher at Google, stated in a new study that:
"We once predicted it would take 20 million qubits to break 2048-bit RSA in 8 hours. Now, it only takes under 1 million qubits and less than a week."
RSA is a very popular encryption system, once considered nearly unbreakable in practice. However, advancements from #Google show that when quantum computers become strong enough, they can completely overcome this barrier – posing risks to similar security systems like Bitcoin.
What risks does Bitcoin face?
Bitcoin does not use RSA, but relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which has a similar mathematical principle to RSA. Although #ECC uses a 256-bit key – stronger than RSA – this is not enough to be reassuring, as quantum computers using Shor's algorithm can break ECC when they have enough power.
What is concerning is that some research groups, such as Project 11, have been experimenting with breaking Bitcoin encryption using quantum technology. They have put up a reward of nearly $85,000 for anyone who can break a simplified version of the Bitcoin key using a quantum computer. Although the experiments are small-scale (1–25 bits), the rate of progress is notable.
How does Google reduce quantum requirements?
Google achieved this breakthrough thanks to:
Better algorithms: Doubling the speed of heavy computations in encryption (modular exponentiation).
Improved error correction: Increasing logical qubit density with a new error correction layer.
"Magic state cultivation": Helping quantum components become more stable and efficient, saving computational resources.
All these improvements significantly shorten the hardware requirements for quantum attacks.
The risk is not only in the future
Even though the scenario of quantum computers being able to break encryption is still a future prospect (currently, the strongest machine – IBM's Condor – has only achieved 1,121 qubits), the real danger lies in the possibility that adversaries may be collecting encrypted data right now to decode later, when quantum technology is ready.
Therefore, Google has begun encrypting traffic on Chrome and its internal systems using post-quantum encryption standards like ML-KEM.
The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has also published post-quantum encryption standards, recommending the replacement of old systems before 2030. However, Google believes this deadline may need to be moved up.
The crypto community needs to prepare early
Many players in the blockchain industry have begun to take action:
Solana implements quantum-resistant vaults based on hash signatures.
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, proposed hard forks of current blockchains to address quantum threats.
ETHUSDTPerp.1,950.5-2.87%
Although it is not at the level of panic, preparing for a post-quantum future is something that cannot be delayed, especially for users holding long-term crypto assets.
Risk warning: The cryptocurrency market always harbors many technical and security risks. Technological developments like quantum computers could create unexpectedly large changes. Investors need to stay updated with information and equip themselves with knowledge about security to protect their digital assets.
