In May 2025, Bitcoin's price broke the $110,000 mark, setting a new historical high, but on-chain data reveals that seasoned investors are beginning to show signs of profit-taking. Despite the bullish market sentiment, the movements of long-term holders have become a key indicator for observing future market trends.

Signs of Profit Taking Emerging

On-chain data shows that during the price rise of Bitcoin from $74,000 to $110,000, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator indicates a significant increase in profit-taking behavior among investors, especially after breaking the $100,000 mark, where dense green bars emerged. Analysis points out that this phenomenon is a normal profit-taking behavior within a bull market cycle, and has not yet reached the large-scale selling levels typical of historical tops. The number of Bitcoins held for more than 155 days continues to grow, indicating that most early investors still choose to hold long-term, keeping overall market selling pressure manageable.

Institutions Accelerate Allocation to Crypto Assets

BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) increased its holdings by 8,000 Bitcoins in May, bringing its total holdings to 639,000 Bitcoins, solidifying its position as the second-largest Bitcoin holder globally. MicroStrategy has increased its positions four times this month, recently purchasing 4,020 Bitcoins at an average price of $106,200, funded by equity financing. Trump Media & Technology Group plans to raise $3 billion to allocate to Bitcoin and other crypto assets, further highlighting institutions' strategic focus on digital assets.

Global Bond Market Crisis Boosts Safe-Haven Demand

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond has risen to 4.48%, and the 30-year yield has reached a decade high of 5.15%, combined with Japanese government bond yields hitting a historical peak of 3.1%, traditional safe-haven assets are under pressure, pushing funds towards Bitcoin. The management scale of Bitcoin spot ETFs has surpassed $104 billion, reflecting institutional investors' recognition of its 'digital gold' properties amid bond market volatility.

Market Divergence Emerging

Although on-chain data shows that long-term holders have not exited on a large scale, institutions like Matrixport are highlighting short-term risks: Bitcoin has been oscillating between $106,000 and $110,000, with shrinking trading volume and a flattening funding rate indicating weakening market momentum. Analysts suggest that investors take some profits and wait for broader capital inflows to drive the next market phase.

Bitcoin's price is currently hovering around $108,000, with the market undergoing a new round of value reassessment under the dual influence of institutional accumulation and macroeconomic uncertainty. Historical data shows that the current scale of profit-taking is far from reaching the cycle's peak. If capital continues to flow in, Bitcoin still has upward potential.

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