Make a bold inference:

If Aster does not TGE within a month, no matter how good the current data looks, it is highly likely to end up in a mess.

Recently, the Aster team may be immersed in the joy of rising trading volume, even getting excited about "soon catching up with Hyperliquid."

On the surface, the data indeed looks impressive, but it is worth noting that: this trading volume is likely not driven by a surge in real user demand, but rather built on unmanaged airdrop expectations.

To be blunt: this is not data growth, but debt growth.

Up to now, Aster has not done any airdrop expectation management, nor has it released a clear TGE schedule. Market enthusiasm continues to rise, and sentiment is facing an overextension critical point. If the time is extended further, the sense of disappointment is very likely to turn into collective FUD.

I am not bearish on Aster, but the past industry patterns have already proven: any short-term prosperity supported by airdrop expectations, without proper rhythm guidance, sentiment management, and expectation anchoring, will ultimately backfire on the project itself, without exception.

We have seen too many projects take off due to "airdrop expectations" and then fall due to "fulfillment." The root of all this has never been a lack of enthusiasm but the project party's blindness to "enthusiasm" and failure to realize the increasingly high user expectations behind it.

Without airdrop expectation management, it is highly likely to backfire, allowing the bubble to expand, which is almost like a chronic collapse.