The cryptocurrency market is facing a major test! This week is a super central bank week, with the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England collectively making significant moves, causing cryptocurrency prices to directly approach the 'macroeconomic game' volcano!

1. The Federal Reserve stands pat, with interest rate cut expectations running high.

The dot plot predicts two interest rate cuts (a total of 50 basis points) in 2025, potentially starting in September. If dovish signals are released, a weaker dollar will benefit cryptocurrencies; the reduction in the balance sheet from $25 billion to $5 billion per month shows that historically, under such easing, Bitcoin averages an 18% increase.

2. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike hangs in the balance, with dual risks hitting hard.

Core CPI is predicted to exceed 3%, and if rates are raised, it may trigger the return of carry trade funds to the yen, potentially crashing the cryptocurrency market in the short term (the first rate hike in 2024 previously caused Bitcoin to drop by 8%). However, if easing is maintained, yen depreciation could push funds into cryptocurrencies—Japanese investors account for 12% of global trading volume, and their movements directly affect market sentiment.

3. The Bank of England's interest rate cut appears to be a done deal, with fluctuations in the pound being transmitted.

The market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut; if the pound weakens, it may divert funds to the cryptocurrency market; if the cut is less than expected, a rebound in the pound could pressure risk assets. Attention should be paid to the autumn budget plan, which may raise inflation and disrupt the pace of rate cuts.

4. Is the CPI cooling a trigger or a smokescreen?

The U.S. CPI year-on-year rate in May was 2.4%, lower than expected, providing room for interest rate cuts. Historical data shows that when CPI is below expectations, Bitcoin averages a 27% increase within three months. However, Trump's tariff policies could raise import costs, so caution is advised regarding a potential resurgence of inflation.

5. The tug-of-war in cryptocurrency prices: 115,000 or 100,000?

Optimists see the Federal Reserve cutting rates and Japan easing, with Bitcoin potentially breaking 115,000; conservatives warn about Japan's rate hikes and the Bank of England's policies falling short of expectations, fearing a drop to 100,000. On-chain data shows short-term holders beginning to take profits, so attention should be paid to key support levels.

Conclusion: Policy dividends coexist with black swans. It is recommended to allocate Bitcoin to hedge against risks, and to cut losses if it falls below 98,000! What are your bets in the comments: will it rise above 110,000 or fall below 100,000 this week? Like, follow, and share with brothers looking to get rich!