【Bitcoin stands at a crossroads, the bull and bear only differ by a K-line】

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering around $100,000, seemingly calm, but in reality, there are undercurrents.

1️⃣ Macroeconomic pressure remains: The CPI in the United States is stuck at high levels, with expectations for a second interest rate hike heating up; if U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, risk assets will face systemic valuation cuts.

2️⃣ On-chain funds are cautious: Data shows that in the last 5 days, the number of active Bitcoin addresses and transactions has declined simultaneously, with off-market sentiment rising, while futures positions continue to accumulate, signaling that high-leverage speculation is nearing its breaking point.

3️⃣ Technical structure is critical: The daily chart has tested the $100,000 support level three times; if it breaks down again, it may trigger a chain liquidation effect, with support looking down to $92,000; conversely, if it breaks out with volume above $105,000, it may challenge the previous high of $112,000.

🔍 The most critical variable is institutional behavior. Currently, exchanges such as Binance and Coinbase are continuously receiving net inflows of stablecoins, indicating that large funds may be accumulating positions at lower levels. However, this does not mean there is no short-term risk; on the contrary — volatility is a trap, and speculation is a harvest.

📌 In summary: The bull market trend is not dead, but this is not the time for mindless all-in positions; rather, it is the moment to formulate tactical plans and strike accurately.