Polymarket traders assign only a 5% chance to China legalizing onshore Bitcoin purchases by the end of 2026. Beijing’s February 2026 regulatory framework reinforced firm prohibitions on crypto activities, including onshore trading, banking facilitation, and stablecoin issuance. Despite Hong Kong's regulatory experiments with Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoin licensing, mainland China maintains a rigid ban against renminbi-to-Bitcoin conversions and crypto mining legalization.

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