Ethereum activity is heating up even as the broader market cools — but is that strength sustainable ahead of the next FOMC meeting? Market snapshot After a strong early-week rally that reclaimed several key levels following roughly eight weeks of sideways action, crypto markets have pulled back from weekly highs. On the daily timeframe most large-cap tokens are retracing, and Ethereum (ETH) is no exception: ETH sits about 3% below its weekly high near $3.4K, but remains roughly 7% higher than the weekly open, suggesting the broader weekly structure is intact rather than broken (source: TradingView, ETH/USDT). Derivatives show rising speculative pressure Beneath the price action, derivatives flows paint a riskier picture. This week saw nearly $3 billion added to ETH’s open interest — a large inflow of speculative liquidity — and Binance’s ETH/USDT perpetual contract has shown an average ~60% long skew. Put together, rising OI and a long-biased skew indicate traders are loading up on leveraged long bets, creating a potential flashpoint if macro volatility spikes. Macro calendar and risk profile That macro volatility could arrive soon: the next FOMC meeting is less than two weeks away. With leverage elevated, what looks like a modest 3% pullback today could either be a healthy reset after the week’s rally or the start of a more aggressive unwind if policymakers surprise markets. For risk-averse participants, staying on the sidelines until post-FOMC clarity is a reasonable play. On-chain fundamentals are flashing green Despite the derivatives-driven tension, Ethereum’s on-chain picture is unusually strong. Glassnode signals a surge in activity retention for the “New” cohort — first-time interacting addresses — while daily new wallets hit an all-time high of 393,000. EtherScan data shows daily transactions spiked to 2.8 million on January 15, a 55% jump vs. a week earlier and more than double typical throughput. That combination — record new wallets and a sharp rise in transactions — points to fresh capital and real usage coming into the network, which can act as a meaningful price support even amid market FUD. Bottom line Technicals, derivatives and macro risk are currently in tension: price structure and on-chain fundamentals look constructive, but elevated open interest and a long-biased futures market raise the stakes ahead of the FOMC. For traders, that means balancing optimism about Ethereum’s network strength with caution around leveraged positions and upcoming macro events. For longer-term observers, the influx of new wallets and rising transaction activity provide a bullish undercurrent worth watching. Disclaimer: AMBCrypto's content is informational and not investment advice. Crypto trading is high-risk; do your own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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