i know i should tell you this
The FOMC meets Jan 27-28. The rate decision is already known: a 97% chance they HOLD at 3.50%-3.75% . 🥱
Forget the hold. This isn't a meeting about economics; it's a battle for the soul of the Fed. Here’s what will actually move markets: $AXL
🔥 The REAL Headlines to Watch (The Political Storm)
Fed Independence Under Attack: Chair Jerome Powell is in the "Eye of the Storm" . He faces a DOJ investigation and a subpoena—an unprecedented legal attack from the White House for not cutting rates fast enough . Any sign of weakness from Powell = market chaos.
The Succession War: Powell's term ends in May. Trump will name his successor soon—frontrunners are Rick Rieder (BlackRock) and Kevin Warsh . The market is pricing in a "politicized pivot" where the new Chair cuts rates no matter what the data says .
Watch for DISSENT: Trump-appointed Fed Governor Stephen Miran is expected to dissent, voting for an aggressive 50 basis point cut . More dissenters = stronger signal for future, politics-driven easing.
📊 What
This Means for Crypto (The 3 Scenarios)
The "hold" can be Hawkish, Dovish, or Neutral. Your trading plan depends on which one we get .
ScenarioWhat It Sounds LikeLikely Crypto Reaction🐦 Dovish HoldPowell focuses on job market risks, hints at cuts soon.BULLISH. Expect a relief rally in BTC & alts. Real yields drop, dollar weakens .🦅 Hawkish HoldPowell stresses stubborn inflation (~2.8%), patience needed.BEARISH RISK. Pressure on risk assets. Real yields and dollar rise, tightening liquidity .⚖️ Neutral HoldBalanced, data-dependent, non-committal.CHOPPY. Direction comes from upcoming jobs & CPI data. Volatility from press conference Q&A .
The Bottom Line: We are witnessing a historic shift. The market is no longer just trading Fed policy—it's trading Fed politics. The credibility of the world's most important central bank is on trial.
Strategy: The "higher for longer" macro grind continues. This environment demands patience and discipline. Don't trade the headline hold—trade the tone from Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM ET .
What's your play? Buying the potential dovish dip or selling a hawkish spike?