The Fed just held rates steady as expected, but don't let the "no move" fool you. The real story is Jerome Powell’s body language during the presser. We are officially in a "Hawkish Pause," and the atmosphere is thick with uncertainty.
Why Powell is in a corner right now:
The Tariff Wildcard: With new 2026 trade tariffs looming, the Fed is terrified of a second inflation wave. They can’t cut rates if import costs are about to spike.
Sticky Inflation: Recent BLS data shows the "cooling" has stalled. We aren't hitting that 2% target as fast as the bulls hoped.
Fed Independence: Powell is pushing back hard against political pressure. He’d rather over-tighten than look like he’s being bullied into a cut.
What this means for your bags:
Expect a "Traders' Graveyard." We’re seeing classic BART formations—sharp vertical moves followed by sideways chop designed to hunt your stop losses.
$SOMI / $JTO : These are high-beta plays. They’ll feel the "liquidity vacuum" first if the 10-year yield keeps climbing. Watch the support levels closely; don't buy the mid-range chop.
Strategy: Position sizing is everything right now. Trade small, stay patient, and wait for the volatility to settle before going heavy.
Is this the "local top" before a deeper correction, or is the market just shaking out the weak hands before a March pivot?
Let me know your play in the comments! 👇
