31 JANEIRO 2026 Ke Liye Aapne Jo Scenario Bataya Hai, wo ek "Perfect Storm" ki tarah hai. Jab Fed hawkish hota hai aur desh (US) band hone ki kagar par hota hai, toh markets "Risk-Off" mode mein chale jate hain.
Aapke crypto assignment aur investment ke liye yahan taaza data aur analysis hai:
1. FOMC "Hawkish Pause" ka Asar
Fed ne rates ko 3.5% - 3.75% par rok diya hai.
Hawkish Pause ka matlab: Rates badh nahi rahe, lekin Powell ne saaf kar diya hai ki wo jaldi niche bhi nahi aayenge ("Higher for Longer").
Market reaction: Isse Dollar Index (DXY) mukhya roop se gir raha hai (4-year low par hai) kyunki Trump ki policies aur tariff threats ne investors ko daryua diya hai.
2. US Government Shutdown (31 Jan 2026)
Shutdown hone ke chance ab 78% se upar hain.
Economic Data Blackout: Shutdown ke dauran US Bureau of Labor Statistics data release nahi karega. Jab tak data nahi aata, Fed andhere mein rehta hai, jisse market mein "Uncertainty" aur badh jati hai.
History: Pichle shutdowns mein S&P 500 aksar stable raha hai, lekin Small-caps aur Crypto zyada girte hain kyunki liquidity (paisa) market se nikal jata hai.
3. Crypto Assignment Analysis
Agar aap assignment likh rahe hain, toh in points ko highlight karein:
Bitcoin vs. Gold: Jan 2026 mein Sona (Gold) $5,000 ke upar nikal kar "All-time High" bana raha hai, lekin Bitcoin $87,000 - $90,000 ke beech struggle kar raha hai.
Liquidity Crunch: Shutdown ka matlab hai US Treasury se liquidity kam hona. 21 January ko ek hi din mein $1 Billion ki liquidations hui thi.
BTC Key Levels: Agar Bitcoin $84,000 ka support todta hai, toh ye seedha $65,500 tak gir sakta hai (CME Gap filling) $BTC $ETH #ClawdbotSaysNoToken
