Lower highs and lower lows are still the story for Bitcoin, but now the price has reached a huge structural price step, and this corresponds with the top of the 2021 bull market. Is this the absolute last chance saloon for Bitcoin?
$BTC price rolling over again
Source: TradingView
The 4-hour time frame shows that the $BTC price broke through the down trend on Monday. However it can be seen that the $78,660 horizontal resistance held firm, and that the bulls were not quite able to push the price to a higher high.
Here we are on Wednesday, and the price is rolling over once again, after a retest of the trendline, but more importantly, a candle wick down to test the beginning of massive horizontal support.
The support level in the chart above aligns with the top of the 8-month long bull flag of 2024. This band of support extends down to $69,000, which is the top of the 2021 bull market.
The $BTC price may come down to rest on this support over the next day or so. It will then remain to be seen whether it starts to fall through, or if a decent bounce can occur.
A historical descent out of the bear flag?
Source: TradingView
The daily time frame reveals the ominous-looking breakdown from the bear flag. If the measured move from this flag is to play out, the price has hardly got going yet on what would be a historical descent.
That said, there is always another scenario that could progress in the opposite direction. Looking at the bullish case we can see that the price has just touched the incredibly strong support level, and looking left, one can see that this lines up with a double bottom.
The Stochastic RSI indicator lines have hit the bottom and are angled to climb up, while the RSI indicator line is well into oversold territory and is currently signalling hidden bullish divergence, as the indicator is higher than in November, while the price has dipped since then.
Finally, if one looks at how the candles are bunching, they are not forming the typical bear flag for a continuation of the downward move. It looks as though something different is about to take place here.
Bullish view persists
Source: TradingView
The weekly time frame illustrates the strength of the support structure that the $BTC price has just come down to meet. Yes, there is the chance that the price comes down through the support and retests the top of the 2021 bull market, and it could even wick down through this level, but this is a support not to be trifled with, and it is expected to hold.
Of course, this is a view, and plenty of bears would take the other side of this view. They would perhaps point to the $53,000 measured move from the bear flag. However, look at the Stochastic RSI and the RSI. Do they look like they are about to signal more downside price action? The last time the RSI was this low was in the absolute depths of the last bear market.
There are not many safe havens for your money as we draw to the end of the fiat experiment. Gold and silver are still there, as they have been through millenia. Bitcoin is arguably the only other safe store of value once people realise that it shouldn’t be measured through the lens of a fiat currency. Sound money is king, do you have any?
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.