Bitcoin is trading below $80,000 as selling pressure and uncertainty keep the market on the defensive. Recent price action shows buyers struggling to step in meaningfully after pullbacks, and traders are increasingly turning to on-chain metrics to determine whether the market is nearing exhaustion or still has further to fall. CryptoQuant analysis points to one such signal: the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to its lowest level in a year. SOPR measures whether coins being spent are moving at a profit or a loss, offering a window into seller behavior across different holder cohorts. The report highlights a sharp convergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs): the ratio is approaching the key 1.0 threshold, implying long-term holders are realizing far less profit than before—or simply pausing sales at current prices. That reluctance to distribute into weakness contrasts with STHs, who remain under pressure. SOPR’s drop has tracked Bitcoin’s slide: prices touched a local low near $77,900 as realized profitability declined. Historically, severely depressed SOPR readings have coincided with “smart money” reducing selling activity—when coins aren’t being moved at a meaningful profit, long-term holders often step back, letting selling pressure ease. In previous cycles, similar conditions have preceded accumulation phases or local market floors, though timing can vary considerably. Two clear scenarios emerge from the data: - If SOPR stabilizes near 1.0, it would suggest heavy distribution from long-term investors is largely exhausted, creating room for a relief bounce as marginal demand returns. - If the momentum-driven price drop persists, the market may enter an extended period of sideways consolidation while participants digest recent volatility before a clearer trend forms. Overall, on-chain signals point to a market flush: SOPR at yearly lows indicates weaker hands may have been washed out, shifting the balance toward longer-term value considerations over short-term fear. Technically, Bitcoin’s weekly picture reinforces the cautious view. Price is hovering around $78,000 after briefly dipping into the mid-$70,000s—an area that acted as a short-term demand pocket. The rebound so far lacks conviction: BTC remains below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, both sloping downward, which favors a bearish bias and suggests rallies are being sold into. The prior $85,000–$90,000 support zone has flipped to resistance, marking a clear change in market structure since late 2025. Volume patterns add another warning: the sell-off into the $74,000–$76,000 range came with elevated volume, while the subsequent bounce occurred on lighter participation—consistent with short-covering or tactical buying rather than broad-based accumulation. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be shifting from a distribution phase into a consolidation or corrective regime. Until price reclaims the flipped resistance and key moving averages, downside risks remain an active consideration. In short: on-chain and technical indicators suggest a stressed market where long-term holders are less willing to sell, but firm evidence of a sustained recovery is still lacking. Traders will be watching SOPR and moving averages closely for signals that selling has truly exhausted or that more consolidation lies ahead. Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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