Headline: Analysts split as macro headwinds push BTC talk toward $50K — optimism from Tom Lee, caution from Galaxy and Nansen Top crypto strategists are sending mixed signals this week as macro uncertainty and Fed-related risks put Bitcoin’s near-term path in question. While Fundstrat’s Tom Lee says the market is set up for a relief rally, researchers at Galaxy and analytics firm Nansen warn BTC could slide toward its 200‑week moving average — roughly $50,000 — before stabilizing. Optimists see a bottom forming In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee expressed confidence that the crypto market may be bottoming and is positioned for recovery. Lee — who also serves as chairman of Ethereum-treasury firm BitMine Immersion — pointed to timing and price signals from BitMine crypto advisor Tom DeMark, who has reportedly been waiting for BTC to hit $77,000 and ETH $2,400. Lee argued fundamentals remain intact and that those technical/data alignments support the case for a relief rally. Lee also said the recent sell-off was expected after the announcement and confirmation of the Fed’s new chair, but added the drop was “more than expected,” noting the market lacked leverage following an October 10 de‑leveraging event. BTC fell last week from around $90K to $75K (an 11% decline by the article’s account) and was trading near $78K at the time of reporting. (Sources: CNBC, X/Tom Lee) Galaxy and Nansen warn of deeper downside Galaxy Research head of research Alex Thorn is more cautious. In a client note, Thorn pointed to weak on‑chain signals, price weakness at key levels, macro uncertainty and a lack of near‑term catalysts, writing that Bitcoin may trade lower toward its 200‑week moving average over the coming weeks or months. The 200‑week MA currently sits near $50K and has historically been a major buying zone during past drawdowns — a level Thorn said should present strong entry points for long‑term investors if reached. (Source: Galaxy Research) Nansen’s principal research analyst Aurélie Barthère echoed that cautious view, flagging Fed policy risk as the main macro overhang. Barthère told AMBCrypto that markets are beginning to price in a modest chance of renewed quantitative tightening (QT) should a change in the Fed’s operating regime occur — a development she called bearish for crypto. (Source: Nansen / AMBCrypto) Whales buying the dip; technical fractals suggest alternative targets Despite the caution, on‑chain data suggests some large holders are already adding exposure. Bitfinex and Glassnode data show wallets holding more than 1,000 BTC buying at discounted prices, hinting at accumulation among long‑term players. (Source: Glassnode / Bitfinex) Technical pattern followers also point to cycle parallels: a 2021 vs. 2025 fractal plotted on TradingView suggests a potential slip toward about $70K — roughly the peak of the prior cycle — reinforcing the idea that bear phases can stabilize near earlier cycle highs. (Source: TradingView) Bottom line The market currently shows a split between tactical optimism — led by Tom Lee and price/time setups from BitMine advisers — and a more guarded stance from institutional research desks and on‑chain analysts who see a clear path to lower support, including the 200‑week moving average around $50K. Traders and investors should weigh both scenarios: opportunistic accumulation by some large holders versus broader macro and liquidity risks that could prolong downside. Disclaimer: This content is informational only and not investment advice. Cryptocurrency trading carries high risk; readers should do their own research before making decisions. © 2026 AMBCrypto Read more AI-generated news on: undefined/news

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