The U.S. dollar is standing at a crossroads and history says crypto is watching closely.
The Dollar Index (DXY) has slipped beneath a 16 year structural trendline and is now hovering around the 96 level, a zone that has repeatedly acted as a launchpad for major Bitcoin rallies.
This isn’t coincidence; it’s a pattern tied to liquidity cycles.
Back in mid-2017, when DXY fell below 96 and failed to recover, Bitcoin didn’t just rise it exploded, delivering nearly an 8x move within months.
Fast-forward to the 2020 pandemic era: unprecedented monetary easing crushed the dollar again, DXY lost 96, and Bitcoin responded with a roughly 7x surge.
Ethereum and altcoins followed with even more aggressive gains.
The mechanism is simple. A weakening dollar reduces the appeal of holding cash. Investors start looking for assets that can preserve value and absorb excess liquidity.
Scarce, decentralized assets like Bitcoin become natural beneficiaries of that shift.
Today, the setup looks familiar.
DXY is once again testing this historically sensitive level while breaking down from long-term support.
If the dollar fails to reclaim 96 and remains below it, the conditions for renewed upside pressure on Bitcoin begin to form.
Markets move in cycles and this is a level where those cycles have turned before
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