Recently, Elon Musk—yes, the richest man on Earth—raised an interesting question about the security of $BTC . On X (formerly Twitter), he asked Grok, the AI chatbot integrated into the platform, whether Bitcoin’s SHA-256 hashing algorithm could be cracked by quantum computing. This question was sparked by IBM’s announcement of its ambitious quantum roadmap.
According to IBM, by 2033 they plan to launch Blue Jay, a powerful quantum system with 2,000 global qubits. That kind of system could potentially handle more than a billion gate operations, which naturally raises questions about the future of cryptography and digital security—especially for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.
What Did Grok Say?
After some big announcements in the quantum space from companies like Google (Willow) and Microsoft (Majorana 1), concerns about the long-term security of Bitcoin began to grow. I found that Grok offered some reassurance.
According to the AI, the probability of quantum computing cracking Bitcoin encryption is extremely low over the next five years. Experts estimate there’s less than a 10% chance of Bitcoin’s SHA-256 getting cracked by 2035. For now, Bitcoin appears to be safe.
In fact, Grok pointed out something quite specific: Based on the latest 2025 reports from NIST and IBM, cracking SHA-256 would require about 10¹² physical qubits to handle error correction. But as of now, we only have around 1,000 noisy qubits. That’s far below what's needed to pose any real threat. So, the chance of a breakthrough by 2030? Less than 1%, according to most experts.
Grok also suggested that in the future, SHA-3 or SHA-512 might replace SHA-256 to keep up with growing quantum capabilities.
What’s at Stake?
Tesla, Musk's own electric car company, currently holds 11,509 Bitcoins, valued at around $1.31 billion. Meanwhile, SpaceX has roughly $850 million worth of $BTC in its reserves. Musk himself has also confirmed that he personally holds Bitcoin.
