ETH is still in a macro downtrend
Price is below EMA 20, 50, and far below EMA 200
EMA(20): ~2063
EMA(50): ~2252
EMA(200): ~2725
➡️ This means bears still control the bigger picture
2️⃣ Recent candle behavior (very important)
ETH dumped hard from ~2396 → 1747
After that dump, price formed:
Strong bounce candle
Then small-bodied candles around 2000–2050
This is called a bear-market consolidation, not a breakout yet.
📌 Translation:
Selling pressure paused, but buyers are not strong enough yet.
3️⃣ Support & resistance from candles
Support zone
1950–1980 (local support)
Major support: 1750–1800
If 1950 breaks on a strong red 4H close → expect another leg down.
Resistance zone
2050–2100 (current fight zone)
Strong resistance: 2200–2250 (EMA 50)
ETH must close multiple 4H candles above 2100 to look bullish short-term.
4️⃣ Indicators confirmation
RSI (≈51)
Neutral
No overbought, no oversold
➡️ Market is waiting for direction
MACD
Histogram turning green
Lines trying to cross up
➡️ Short-term relief bounce possible, but still weak
Williams %R (-82 → rising)
Coming out of oversold
➡️ Bounce already happened, momentum slowing now
Forecast based on THIS chart
🔵 Most likely scenario (50–55%)
Sideways → slight pullback
ETH ranges between 1950–2100
Wicks both sides
Traps late longs & shorts
This is accumulation / distribution behavior.
🟢 Bullish scenario (25–30%)
Strong 4H close above 2100
Volume expansion
Next target: 2200–2250
Only valid if candles close strong, not wick rejection.
🔴 Bearish scenario (20–25%)
4H close below 1950
Red expansion candle
Fast move toward 1800 zone
This happens if BTC turns weak suddenly.
How to trade this (if you trade)
❌ Don’t long into resistance (2050–2100)
✅ Best longs = near support with confirmation
❌ Don’t overleverage — this is a trap zone
✅ Wait for break & close, not wicks
Bottom line
📉 Trend: still bearish
⏸️ Short-term: consolidation
⚠️ Big move coming, direction not confirmed yet
If you want, I can:
Mark exact entry / SL / TP
Read BTC correlation
Analyze 1H or Daily next
Just tell me 👀📊