Price: $69,577
OVERBOUGHT WARNING — REJECTION ZONE
CURRENT SITUATION:
Bounce from extreme oversold (12H BW -65, Daily -72) has reached OVERBOUGHT on lower timeframes:
15M BrainWaves: +68 (OVERBOUGHT)
30M BrainWaves: +55 (OVERBOUGHT — "Reversal Possible" signal)
Delta Bearish Divergence on 15M (1 bar ago)
Conviction: 100% BEARISH STRONG (full body red candles)
CRITICAL ZONE: $69,900-$70,100
Massive 24H liquidation cluster (shorts) — likely target before rejection
WHAT'S HAPPENING:
Price pumped from $68k → $69.6k in low-volume weekend bounce. Now hitting overbought resistance with bearish divergence forming. All higher timeframes (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) remain BEARISH.
MACRO CONTEXT — WHY BEARISH:
Weekly: BW -60 FALLING, exhaustion 25% (fresh move, room to fall)
Daily: BW -72 (extreme oversold but trend still down)
Monthly: BW +19 FALLING, momentum declining
Volume elevated (401-440%) but efficiency LOW (23-28%) = weak conversion
LIQUIDATION ZONES:
ABOVE (magnets):
$69,900-$70,100 — 24H yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $322-$522 away
$70,500-$71,000 — 48H yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $923-$1,423 away
$72,000-$73,000 — 3-day yellow zone — $2,423+ away
BELOW (targets):
$69,000-$69,300 — 24H green/yellow (STRONG) — $277-$577 away
$68,800-$69,200 — 48H green/yellow (STRONG) — $377-$777 away
$68,000-$68,500 — Support + liquidation — $1,077-$1,577 away
$67,000-$68,000 — 1-week yellow zone (VERY STRONG) — $1,577+ away
💡 TWO SCENARIOS — NEXT 24-48H:
📈 SCENARIO 1: Push to $70k (40% probability)
Price sweeps $69,900-$70,100 liquidation cluster before rejection
Why possible:
✅ Lower TF exhaustion only 4-16% (fresh move)
✅ Strong liquidation magnet above
✅ 1H and 4H not yet overbought
✅ Delta accumulating on 30M, 1H, 4H
What happens next:
→ Volume spike + rejection
→ Bearish engulfing
→ BrainWaves topping
→ DROP to $69k → $68.5k
SCENARIO 2: Immediate Rejection (60% probability) — MORE LIKELY
Price rejected from current level ($69,577) or slightly above ($69,700-$69,800)
Why more likely:
✅ 15M and 30M ALREADY overbought
✅ Delta Bearish Divergence on 15M
✅ Conviction 100% BEARISH STRONG
✅ Weekly BEARISH FALLING, exhaustion 25%
✅ Efficiency 23-28% (weak conversion, absorption)
Targets:
→ $69,200 (EMA200 + support cluster)
→ $68,800-$69,000 (48H liquidation cluster)
→ $68,000-$68,500 (strong support)
→ $67,336 (PDL)
TRADING PLAN:
LONG Scalp (RISKY — aggressive traders only)
Entry$69,577-$69,700Stop Loss$69,037TP1$69,920 — R:R 0.6:1TP2$70,100 — R:R 1.0:1TP3$70,947 — R:R 2.5:1
WARNING: Trading INTO overbought against higher TFs. Must exit at $70k-$70.1k — don't overstay.
SHORT from Overbought (BEST SETUP — 60% confidence)
Entry$69,900-$70,100 (sweep zone) OR current if immediate rejectionStop Loss$70,500TP1$69,577 — R:R 0.9:1TP2$69,200 — R:R 1.6:1TP3$68,500 — R:R 3.2:1TP4$67,336 — R:R 5.5:1
Confirmation signals:
Volume spike at $69,900-$70,100
Bearish engulfing on 15M/30M
BrainWaves starts FALLING
RSI divergence
Delta stays negative
Wait for Clarity (SAFEST)
Wait for one of two things:
Sweep + rejection at $70k → SHORT
Immediate rejection + bearish confirmation → SHORT now
SITUATION CHANGES IF:
Close above $70,500 with volume → invalidates bearish short-term thesis
BOTTOM LINE:
BEARISH macro, but short-term bounce reached overbought. Lower timeframes showing "Overbought +55 (Reversal Possible)" + Delta Bearish Divergence = WARNING ZONE for rejection.
TWO OUTCOMES:
40%: Push to $70k liquidation sweep → SHORT rejection
60%: Immediate rejection → DROP to $69k → $68.5k
All higher TFs (Daily, Weekly, Monthly) remain BEARISH. Weekly exhaustion 25% = fresh move, room to fall.
BEST PLAY: Wait for $70k sweep + rejection OR immediate rejection confirmation, then SHORT toward liquidation clusters below.
This is a relief bounce hitting overbought — NOT a reversal. Rejection imminent.
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