$BTC Bitcoin Risk Alert šØ | Sharpe Ratio Negative Again
Bitcoin ka risk-reward setup dobara warning de raha hai. Ek important indicator Sharpe Ratio phir se negative ho chuka hai ā jo historically sirf major downturns (2018ā19 aur 2022 crash) ke time dekha gaya.
Sharpe Ratio ka matlab simple hai:
š Kya returns, volatility (risk) ko justify kar rahe hain ya nahi?
Abhi jawab NO hai.
š Kya ho raha hai?
Bitcoin ~$90,000 ke aas paas trade kar raha hai
Year ke start mein ~$120,000 ke highs touch kiye
Price high hai, lekin volatility bohat zyada hai
Risk ke muqable mein reward kam ho gaya hai
ā Negative Sharpe Ratio ka matlab:
Investors high risk le rahe hain, lekin returns ya to kam hain ya phir safe assets (bonds, gold) se bhi worse.
š Kuch log isay ābuy signalā samajhte hain, lekin history kuch aur batati hai:
2018 aur 2022 mein Sharpe Ratio months tak negative raha
Market sideways aur choppy rahi
False rallies ne buyers ko exhaust kiya
š Important baat:
Sharpe Ratio market bottom predict nahi karta
Yeh sirf yeh dikhata hai ke abhi market risk lene ke qabil hai ya nahi
š Historically, real recovery tab start hoti hai jab:
Sharpe Ratio wapas positive ho
Volatility kam ho
Returns stable ho jayein
Abhi aisa kuch nazar nahi aa raha.
Conclusion:
Bitcoin abhi bhi wild zone mein hai. Jab tak volatility control mein nahi aati aur risk-adjusted returns improve nahi hotay, tab tak reward risk ke muqable mein weak rahe ga.$BTC
