Who Will Trump Nominate as the Next Fed Chair?
The Federal Reserve Chair plays a critical role in shaping U.S. monetary policy, influencing interest rates, inflation, and overall economic stability. With Jerome Powell’s term ending in May 2026, speculation is heating up over who President Donald Trump will select as his successor. Two leading candidates have emerged: Rick Rieder and Kevin Warsh.
Rick Rieder
Rick Rieder is BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, a senior Wall Street expert in bonds and macroeconomic trends. He has impressed President Trump with his understanding of financial markets and monetary policy.
• Pros: Strong market expertise; seen as flexible and market-friendly, potentially aligning with Trump’s preference for lower interest rates.
• Cons: Lacks prior Fed leadership experience, which could raise questions about his familiarity with internal Fed operations.
Kevin Warsh
Kevin Warsh is a former Federal Reserve governor (2006–2011) with extensive experience in monetary policy and financial regulation. He represents a more traditional choice, with credibility among economists and policymakers.
• Pros: Deep knowledge of the Fed and policy-making; institutional experience.
• Cons: Viewed by some as less likely to implement aggressive interest-rate cuts, which may not align with Trump’s priorities.
Who Has the Edge?
Current prediction markets indicate that Rick Rieder has the higher chance of being nominated, with odds around 50–60%, compared to Kevin Warsh’s 24–30%. Rieder’s rising momentum is fueled by Trump’s positive comments about him and market sentiment favoring a candidate with a flexible, market-oriented approach.
While Warsh remains a strong contender due to his Fed experience, the trend suggests that Rieder is currently the frontrunner.
Why It Matters
The nomination will have wide-reaching implications:
• For markets: Investors will closely watch how the new Fed Chair may influence interest rates and market stability.
• Politically: Trump’s decision reflects both his economic priorities and his desire to leave a legacy on U.S. monetary policy.
• Confirmation process: Even after nomination, the Senate must confirm the candidate, adding another layer of political consideration.
In conclusion, while both candidates are qualified, Rick Rieder appears more likely to become the next Fed Chair, signaling a potentially more market-driven approach to U.S. monetary policy.