Late Jan 29, Kevin Warsh quietly appeared at the White House.
Hours later, Polymarket odds for Warsh as next Fed Chair exploded to 95%.
This isnât random.
Warsh is a former Fed Governor, the youngest in history, a key player during the 2008 crisis, and once nearly beat Powell for the top job.
đ Trump confirmed the Fed Chair nominee would be announced Friday.
đ CNN spotted Warsh inside the White House the same day.
Markets connected the dots â fast.
đŁ Why Warsh scares markets
Warsh is famous for one line:
đ âInflation is a choice.â
He believes inflation isnât wages itâs the Fedâs $7T balance sheet.
His playbook? â Cut rates
â Shrink the balance sheet
â Drain liquidity while easing policy
That combo is unconventional and risky.
He resigned in 2011 opposing QE.
Now he supports rate cuts, aligning closely with Trumpâs push for cheaper money.
â ď¸ Fed independence could change
Warsh supports a new FedâTreasury Accord, meaning closer coordination with the White House.
Translation: the Fed stays âindependentâ but not isolated.
đ Crypto implications
Warsh has: â Invested in crypto projects
â Called Bitcoin a potential store of value
â Also said: âCrypto isnât money itâs softwareâ
The wildcard? đ He supports a US CBDC to compete with China directly clashing with Trumpâs antiâdigital dollar stance.
đ What matters for investors
â Powellâs term ends May 2026
â Second half of 2026 could define liquidity, risk assets, and crypto
If Warsh takes the chair, markets may get lower rates â but also policy shockwaves.
This isnât just a Fed pick.
Itâs a potential regime change.
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