Here are well-documented cases from 2018 onward (based on alternative.me data, historical charts, and market analyses)
March 2020 (COVID Crash)
Index plunged to single digits / extreme fear (~10 or lower) amid global panic sell-off.
$BTC bottomed around $3,800–$4,000.
Bounce: Index quickly recovered to neutral/greed levels within weeks/months. BTC rallied massively → +200–300% in the following months, kicking off the 2020–2021 bull run to $60K+ by early 2021. One of the strongest historical recoveries tied to extreme fear.
June–July 2022 (Bear Market Lows, post-Terra/FTX buildup)
Index hit ~6–10 (extreme fear) near BTC lows of $17K–$20K.
Prolonged fear in mid-2022.
Bounce: Sentiment gradually improved into late 2022/early 2023. BTC started recovering → doubled+ by mid-2023, setting up for later highs.
November–December 2022 (FTX Collapse Aftermath)
Index dropped to extreme fear/low 20s or below during the chaos.
BTC around $15K–$16K lows.Bounce: Fear phase extended but flipped to recovery mode in 2023. BTC surged over 150–200% in the next 6–12 months as sentiment rebuilt.Other notable extreme fear dips (e.g., 2018 bear, mid-2025 corrections)
Lows like 10–20 often preceded rebounds.
After 2025 yearly low (~10 in Nov 2025), sentiment had some recovery attempts, though volatile.
In late 2025/early 2026 dips (e.g., index ~11–17), BTC held higher floors (e.g., ~$80K–$90K ranges) compared to past bears, with some analysts noting modest short-term positives (e.g., 2–9% median 30-day returns after sub-10 readings in some datasets, though inconsistent).
General Patterns from Historical Data
Extreme fear (sub-20) frequently marks local bottoms or capitulation → average forward returns positive over 3–6–12 months in many studies (e.g., 100%+ gains post-2020/2022 lows).
But not instant: Fear can persist (e.g., weeks/months of low 20s as in current 2026 phase or 2022). About 60–70% of extreme low periods see eventual upside, but short-term (7–30 days) can be flat/mixed.
Contrarian view: Extreme fear = "buy the dip" opportunity historically (e.g., post-March 2020, post-2022). Extreme greed often precedes corrections/tops.Recent context (Jan 30–31, 2026): Index at ~16 (extreme fear), lingering from ~10–24 range over weeks/months. Similar to past prolonged fear phases—watch for catalysts (e.g., macro clarity, no shutdown escalation) to spark a bounce. BTC around $82K holds key support; break could extend fear, hold/rebound could flip sentiment.
Check live historical charts for visuals:
alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index (classic plot with time zoom).
CoinMarketCap or CoinGlass versions (yearly highs/lows, e.g., 2025 high ~76 greed, low ~10 extreme fear).
History favors bounces after extreme fear, but patience is key—combine with BTC price action, on-chain metrics, and news. Current setup feels "oversold" like past opportunities, but no guarantees in crypto! What's your strategy if we see a sentiment flip soon? 🚀 #fearandgreed #BTC #MarketCorrection #CZAMAonBinanceSquare $BTC
