Ethereum $ETH — Alternative Scenario Still in Play
There is still a possibility that ETH is trading within a channel, and that we are currently forming the fifth wave inside it. In this case, my previous scenario remains valid.
Even if the market is consolidating now, I still believe that once the channel is fully worked out, ETH may experience a significant downside move. This structure still looks like a bear flag, which usually resolves to the downside — but it needs to be completed first.
At the same time, there is a reasonable chance for a local bounce. On the 4H timeframe, the previous strong impulse shows five waves down, which I interpret as a global Wave 4. To properly “fill the channel” and complete the structure, the market likely needs one more push up — a fifth wave.
This potential move could bring ETH back to the previous high around $3,400, which represents roughly a +24% upside from current levels.
However, even if this local growth scenario plays out, my global view remains bearish. After reaching the top of the channel and completing the fifth wave, a deep correction to the downside is still very possible, in line with the bear flag structure I mentioned earlier.
📌 Conclusion:
Locally (4H): potential +24% move up toward $3,400 to complete Wave 5
Globally: high probability of a deep pullback after the channel is fully formed
For now, I’m focusing on the local setup, trading the move inside the channel — while keeping the bigger bearish picture in mind.
Stop loss 2.634