As Chinese communities worldwide prepare to welcome the Year of the Horse, prediction market platform Polymarket is betting on one of the world's most-watched television events: China's Spring Festival Gala, known as Chunwan.

What Is the Spring Festival Gala?

The Spring Festival Gala is arguably the biggest television event on the planet. Produced by China Media Group (CMG, formerly CCTV), this spectacular variety show airs live on Chinese New Year's Eve, this year on February 16, 2026, as the Spring Festival falls on February 17.

Running for approximately 4–5 hours (typically from 8 PM until after midnight, crossing into the Lunar New Year), Chunwan features an eclectic mix of performances including traditional opera, pop music, comedy sketches, dance numbers, acrobatics, and increasingly, cutting-edge technology displays.

For decades, it has been an essential part of Chinese New Year celebrations, drawing viewership numbers that dwarf even the Super Bowl. Recognized as the world's most-watched television program, Chunwan consistently attracts over 1 billion viewers annually. The 2022 broadcast drew 1.29 billion viewers, while 2025 coverage reached 16.8 billion global views when accounting for real-time social media interactions across platform.

What makes Chunwan compelling for public speculation? The show maintains strict secrecy around its lineup, but leaves clues that generate buzz. When AI dominates headlines, will the gala showcase AI performances? When a veteran singer hasn't appeared in years, will this be their comeback? These questions generate massive discussion on Chinese social media before the broadcast.

Betting only works when there's uncertainty.

What Markets Are Live on Polymarket?

As of now, Polymarket has launched 2 markets centered on specific aspects of the 2026 Spring Festival Gala:

Will Li Guyi Perform at the Spring Festival Gala?

This market focuses on whether veteran singer Li Guyi, celebrated for patriotic classics like "My Motherland" and the iconic "Tonight is Unforgettable," will make an appearance and perform. Li has been a Chunwan staple for decades, and her performances are often considered tradition itself.

Currently, there's only a 6% chance that she will perform.

Which Robot Dancer Brands Will Feature at the 2026 Spring Festival Gala?

This market asks traders to predict which robotics companies will showcase dancing robots during the broadcast. Currently, Unitree Robotics is leading at 95% probability for "Yes."

Unitree has become a Chunwan regular. The company made its debut in 2021 with the robotic ox "Benben," then returned for the 2025 gala with a stunning performance that went viral, "Yang Bot" (Yangge Bot), directed by renowned filmmaker Zhang Yimou.

In that performance, 16 of Unitree's H1 humanoid robots, dressed in traditional northeastern Chinese floral-patterned coats, joined human dancers from the Xinjiang Art Institute to perform Yangge, a lively folk dance from northeast China. The robots executed complex choreography with remarkable precision: twirling and throwing red handkerchiefs, spinning them in perfect sync with human performers, and blending traditional folk energy with robotic accuracy. It became an instant symbol of how China merges cultural heritage with cutting-edge technology.

Given this track record, traders are betting heavily on Unitree's return in 2026. In fact, Chinese media has already announced that Unitree Technology will be the official robotics partner for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala, though this news has flown largely under the radar in English-language media. For those following Chinese sources, the 95% probability isn't speculation, it's more likely a confirmation.

However, trading volume remains low on both markets. Without substantial participation, they can't function as effective price discovery mechanisms. Besides, Chunwan productions involve hundreds of staff over months of planning. Hence, details might leak early and often.

Why Is Polymarket Betting on Chunwan?

According to @JYtopfloorboss, this idea was inspired by one of the users. The move represents a significant strategic pivot for Polymarket, which has built its reputation primarily on crypto markets and US political events, especially elections.

Expanding into high-cultural-significance events outside the Western sphere signals several strategic objectives:

Diversification Beyond Politics

While political prediction markets remain Polymarket's bread and butter, cultural events like Chunwan offer lower-stakes, more accessible entry points for new users. These markets are fun, viral-friendly, and less polarizing than political betting.

Global User Acquisition

By creating markets around non-Western cultural touchstones, Polymarket positions itself as a truly global platform rather than a US-centric one. Chunwan markets could help build organic buzz in Chinese crypto and social media circles, on platforms like Weibo, Xiaohongshu (Little Red Book), and WeChat, even if direct access remains limited.

The VPN Factor

Polymarket, like many crypto platforms, is officially blocked in mainland China. However, crypto-savvy users frequently access such platforms via VPNs. Low-stakes, culturally relevant markets like these could drive word-of-mouth growth and establish Polymarket's brand among Chinese users who are already navigating digital barriers to participate in global crypto markets.

Cultural Cachet

Launching Chunwan markets demonstrates cultural awareness and respect for traditions outside the Anglosphere. It's a signal that Polymarket understands the global nature of prediction markets and is willing to meet audiences where their interests lie, whether that's US presidential elections or which legendary Chinese singer will take the stage on New Year's Eve.

Looking Ahead

As the Spring Festival approaches, these markets reveal how prediction platforms are evolving beyond their traditional domains. Chunwan isn't just a domestic phenomenon, it's a global cultural touchstone for Chinese communities from Singapore to San Francisco, Toronto to Sydney. Millions of overseas Chinese tune in annually to stay connected to their heritage.

By tapping into Chunwan, Polymarket reaches the entire Chinese diaspora: a globally distributed, crypto-savvy demographic that already bridges East and West. These markets are strategic infrastructure connecting Polymarket to Eastern audiences in ways that transcend geographic and regulatory barriers.

Whether traders bet on Li Guyi's appearance or Unitree's dancing robots, the message is clear: the future of prediction markets is global, cultural, and diverse.