Right now, Strategy is underwater.


The buffer between the current #Bitcoin price and Saylor’s average entry is down to just a few hundred dollars per BTC. At one point overnight, the entire position was negative.


And what did Saylor do?



👉 He bought more BTC last week — at prices ABOVE the current market.


I’ve been tracking this story since my December projection. Why? Because Strategy is system-relevant for crypto.


📉 Facts first:

  • $MSTR stock: –75% from ATH

  • 8 consecutive red months

  • Bitcoin position: near breakeven, briefly underwater



⚠️ Important clarification


There is NO classic margin call.


❌ No Bitcoin is posted as collateral

❌ No lender can force-liquidate BTC


But… there ARE three scenarios where selling BTC could still become necessary.



🔑 Trigger 1: The Put Dates (Convertible Notes)


Strategy issued billions in convertible bonds.


If $MSTR trades below the conversion price, bondholders won’t convert to equity — they’ll demand cash repayment instead 💵.


📆 First major put date: Q3 2027

📉 Current $MSTR price: well below conversion levels


That’s a ticking clock.



🔑 Trigger 2: The Cash-Flow Squeeze


Strategy has five preferred-share series, paying dividends up to 11.25% 😬


💸 Annual dividend obligations

⬆️ Far exceed operating income


At the current burn rate, cash reserves last until ~mid-2028 — exactly when the put dates hit.


That overlap matters.



🔑 Trigger 3: The Flywheel Reverses


The old model was simple:


🔁 Issue shares → Buy BTC → BTC up → Stock up → Repeat


Now?


⚠️ mNAV is close to 1

⚠️ New share issuance causes immediate dilution


Strategy has even admitted that under certain conditions, it may pause new share issuance — with legal “escape clauses.”


That’s the flywheel slowing… maybe reversing.



🧠 Market Signals


  • Polymarket now shows bankruptcy odds for Strategy

  • Investor confidence is fragile

  • Bitcoin volatility makes timing critical


I don’t see the real danger in 2026.


📍 Q3 2027 is the moment of truth.


If:

  • #Bitcoin is weak

  • #MSTR stays below conversion prices


Then Saylor needs a Plan B.



📊 Tomorrow: Q4 earnings.

That’s when we’ll see how Strategy explains billions in unrealized BTC losses to the market.


This story is far from over.


I’m staying on it. 🤝

#TrumpEndsShutdown #USIranStandoff #KevinWarshNominationBullOrBear