While a new wave of institutions from Abu Dhabi to Wall Street quietly builds historic Bitcoin positions, adoption faces stubborn headwinds on multiple critical fronts: nation state momentum, pension funds, corporate boardrooms, and a lagging public narrative. Here’s the uncomfortable scorecard and a suggested plan of action: one we need to build together.
In November, Jordi Visser wrote an influential and well reasoned article called "
Bitcoin's Silent IPO
" which documented the phenomenon dictating distribution of Bitcoin from Long Term Holders.
In August last year, I wrote an article to my subscriber base which asked the complementary question "who are the new adopters?" with an analysis suggesting there weren't enough of them, and why.
I've decided to make this article public. Not because it analyzes the early signs causes of weak adoption, but because it offers some clues as to what we can do about this. Here is that newsletter in full. Only the last paragraph and title has been changed.
The good news
For the first time in history, major capital allocators are treating Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.
Hedge Fund Brevan Howard now holds
$2.3 billion in Bitcoin. With total Assets Under Management of $35 billion , this represents a significant 6.6% of AUM Bitcoin exposure.
Mubadala, Abu Dhabi’s $330 billion sovereign wealth fund, has allocated $681 million to Bitcoin. A modest 0.2%, but a seismic first step.
Bhutan, a sovereign nation, has amassed $
1.26 billion in bitcoin, acquired through mining, and representing 38% of GDP
.
These watershed moments
world’s first significant hedge-fund to have more than 5% of AUM in Bitcoin
world’s first Sovereign Fund to have Bitcoin exposure of more than 1/2 Billion
have the potential to positively influence peers in the industry. Meanwhile, wirehouses, and hedgefunds continue to quietly building positions via ETFs, Bitcoin treasury holdings and now, shares in mining companies
.
The kick in the pants
The hard truth is that there’s also been three areas where adoption has slowed/stalled, and three areas where adoption has unwound or stalled in the last year.
Nation state adoption: -1
El Salvador’s own finance minister and central bank president both recently confirmed that El Salvador
stopped acquiring bitcoin in February 2025 as a condition of their Dec 2024 IMF loan deal for $1.4Billion.Samson Mow recently talked about how he spent 4 years trying to accelerate
nation state adoption, and has now pivoted away from the strategy.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserves (SBRs): -1
Outside Bhutan, SBRs have seen more recent losses than wins
Germany’s state of Saxony sold its stack. UK has floated the idea of selling theirs
. US has made very little traction on its SBR. Bo Hines, who led the SBR initiative, resigned (has taken a position at Tether). One administration may purchase, but the next one may sell. The lesson: nation states should not be considered strong hands.
Pension Funds: -1
Wisconsin, US’s first pension fund to buy Bitcoin, also became the first one to sell its position (during a 12% dip catalyzed by uncertainty in markets due to tariffs). This matters because it shows pension funds are not necessarily strong hands.
Corporate treasury adoption by large pubcos: 0
99.45% of Microsoft shareholder votes were against doing a feasibility study to assess investing in Bitcoin
Large corporate adoption moves have been voted down 99%+ against. We know why this was voted down (from my own conversations with those involved). Left-leaning shareholder committees felt that neither Bitcoin nor Michael Saylor’s pitch spoke to their values.
Concerningly, Bitcoin retail exposure to Bitcoin in US has not increased in the US in the last year (static at 48 Million), while sentiment towards bitcoin has decreased and become more politicized according to a
new report from the Nakamoto Project. Adoption races cannot be won though flat growth and fading sentiment.
Hearts and Minds
Despite improvements in the Bitcoin mining narrative , Bitcoin as a whole is losing the public PR battle. Its story is largely told by its enemies. Inspiring stories about refugee uptake of Bitcoin from DARI and great ESG data
from Cambridge has come out this year. But apart from Bitcoin insiders, very few have heard these stories. As a result the shareholders committees, investment committees, ESG committees and boards of patient capital continue to vote down Bitcoin if it even gets to a vote.
Bitcoin’s antagonists have large well-oiled publicity and PR machines that speak to the heart. We are fighting them with data, charts and defensive social media battles that appeal only to rational mind. Going forward, that is not going to cut it.
Worse, the response has largely consisting of us recycling “the message that orange pilled me”. Problem is, you and I are early adopters, the message that convinces the early adopter is not the same as the one that convinces the early majority.
Scorecard
If Bitcoiners were a sports team, we’d be asking why we crashed out in several major matches and refining our strategy so it didn’t recur.
As it stands, this introspection has been largely absent. Let’s change that.
Solutions
Happily, there is a lot we can do. Here’s the action we can take together to create a future not of setbacks and stalled adoption, but of vibe-shifts and renewed exponential adoption curves.
Start telling our own story, in a professional yet authentic way: Bitcoin urgently needs a targeted PR budget, and a coordinated and authentic PR campaign to capture the hearts and minds of Main Street.
Support independent bridge-builders: Cambridge for example has reach to over 350 financial regulators and policymakers; more than 30 sovereign funds. We could easily be working with them to publish more independent research that can educate these groups.
Target the areas most likely to succeed: less focus on nations buying bitcoin (hard), more focus on helping nations to mine bitcoin (not as hard). Less focus on nation state adoption, more focus on patient capital adoption. Less focus on EU/US, more focus on MENA (they don’t have multiple years of anti-Bitcoin gaslighting to unlearn)
Prioritize NGU²: (Number-Go-Up) AND (Narrative-go-up), like
The Bitcoin Stewardship Initiative
. Corporate treasuries are necessary, and by themselves they do not inspire the next wave of adopters: Bitcoin bond companies that spearhead restorative agriculture can!
Transcend the echo chamber: watching follow-counts on X and doing Bitcoin podcast might feel good: it’s also largely irrelevant to adoption. Time to move onto non-Bitcoin podcasts, in force!
More Bitcoin Policy Institutes in more states and more countries. I’ve helped two groups set these up in their state or nation state. We need more.
The right message and the right messengers: We need messages and messengers who target the next wave of adopters, not the early adopters. This means showcasing how bitcoin promotes environmental and social justice like no other technology … as well as being a great investment.
These are a few of the podcast where we need more Bitcoin voices heard
Peter Drucker once said “The best way to predict the future is to create it”. We’re in this together, and providence has gifted us a rare chance not just to watch history but to create it. Most Bitcoiners believe that their actions can directly impact adoption. I agree.
Not a scientific poll, but a survey of my followers that confirmed what we probably all suspected: Bitcoiners have high agency.
Adoption is partly down to Bitcoin having its "www" moment as applications make Bitcoin more accessible, but just as much down us the age-old phenomenon of having the right conversations with the right people.