It’s been a while since we’ve seen such a clear two-leg structure in $ETH options flow.
Total size ~ $97M notional (Feb 27 ~ $69M | Mar 26 ~ $28M).
The objective is not pure directional betting, but risk hedging + volatility farming.
1/ Feb 27 Leg – Downside Hedge (1800 → 1500)
- Notional: ~$69M | Net premium: -$300K
- Payoff: Starts making money if ETH < 1800, max profit at 1500
→ For the near term, the trader is preparing for a bearish scenario on ETH. If ETH continues to drop toward the 1.5k area, the Feb 27 leg serves as a cheap hedge for spot exposure.
2/ Mar 26 Leg – Theta Farming / Rebound Play (2000 → 2600)
- Notional: ~$28M | Net premium: +$2.25M
- Payoff: Profitable as long as ETH > 2000, max profit if it holds above 2600
→ This leg is ~1 month out, with strikes not too far from spot, suggesting the trader is harvesting premium while leaving room for a post-selloff rebound. The $2.25M premium collected is used to offset the ~$300K hedging cost paid in the Feb 27 leg.
📊Sum Up
Short-term downside hedging + medium-term vol selling to finance the insurance cost — not a one-way directional bet on ETH.
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