Strategy (MSTR) has entered the new year under heavy pressure, extending a multi-month decline that has kept the stock firmly in negative territory. The downturn closely mirrors Bitcoin’s recent weakness, with BTC slipping below the $73,000 level—its lowest point in the past 52 weeks. Unsurprisingly, MSTR has followed suit, hovering near the bottom of its yearly range and trading below its 200-day simple moving average, a key technical red flag for many investors.
Despite mounting unrealized losses and growing skepticism from the market, Strategy chairman Michael Saylor remains confident in the firm’s long-term Bitcoin strategy. However, investor sentiment tells a different story. With MSTR now trading under $125, several Wall Street analysts have revised their outlooks downward, projecting potential further declines toward the $100 level. Still, not everyone has turned bearish. A handful of optimists continue to see massive upside, with Maxim Group assigning a $500 price target, while Barclays and Canaccord Genuity sit just below that range at $475 and $474.
Aggressive BTC Accumulation Continues as Bearish Bets Rise
Even amid market uncertainty, Strategy has not slowed its Bitcoin accumulation. The company recently added another $264 million worth of BTC, bringing its total holdings to an estimated 712,647 BTC, valued at roughly $63 billion. The firm appears to be capitalizing on Bitcoin’s early-2026 weakness, doubling down on the belief that BTC will eventually reclaim and surpass the $100,000 mark.
At the same time, bearish positioning against MSTR is accelerating. The GraniteShares 2x Short MSTR Daily ETF (MSDD) has surged approximately 275% over the past year, highlighting growing conviction among traders betting against the stock. Designed to deliver -200% of MSTR’s daily performance, the ETF amplifies short-term moves and carries significant risk. Since its launch in January 2025, MSDD has become a popular tactical instrument for bears, recently hitting a record high of $114 and posting a 13.5% gain year-to-date, according to TradingView.
Outlook: Confidence vs. Caution
As crypto market uncertainty deepens in 2026, Bitcoin-linked equities such as Strategy (MSTR) and Coinbase (COIN) continue to face sustained selling pressure. This marks a sharp reversal from the bullish expectations that once dominated forecasts for the year. With no clear catalyst in sight, analysts are increasingly divided—some urging caution or exit, others holding firm to long-term conviction. Whether Strategy’s bold Bitcoin thesis ultimately proves visionary or premature remains one of the most closely watched questions in the crypto-equity space.
