Prediction market players expect an impressive result for Logan Paul's famous “Pikachu Illustrator” card after the collector-transformed influencer confirmed plans to sell it at auction in early 2026, stirring up new discussions about rarity, hype, and how far nostalgia-backed assets can go.
LOGAN PAUL AND "PIKACHU ILLUSTRATOR": HISTORY OF ORIGIN, AUCTION PLANS, DISPUTE AND OPINION OF POLYMARKET
The updated focus is on a December statement by Logan Paul, who said he plans to sell his "Pikachu Illustrator" card at auction in early 2026, putting an end to years of speculation about whether the item will ever be sold publicly. The map is widely regarded as the rarest Pokémon card in existence, and Paul's property kept it in the focus of pop culture.
On Polymarket, traders are actively betting on how high the final price can be. The prediction market turned the auction into a live referendum on the value of the card and the total demand for trophy Pokémon collectible cards related to star property.
As of the end of December, Polymarket prices show strong confidence that the card will pass several major thresholds. Contracts involving sales of more than $4 million were traded at about 91%, with the odds remaining high through the $6 million and $7 million levels. Confidence declines as prices rise higher, with probabilities falling sharply above $10 million and becoming extremely skeptical after $15 million, reflecting enthusiasm softened by realism.
The history of the origin of the card helps explain why even conservative estimates remain high. "Pikachu Illustrator" was released in 1998 as a prize in the Japanese illustration competition held by Corocoro Comic magazine. Instead of mass production, the card was awarded to a small group of winners, with it believed that there are only 39 to 41 copies worldwide.
What distinguishes Paul's example is the state. His card is the only known "Pikachu Illustrator" with a PSA 10 rating from Professional Sports Authenticator, meaning it achieved a perfect score for centering, angles, borders and surface. In a world of high-value collectible cards guided by estimates, this indicator itself places the card in the category of a single copy. On the other hand, online controversy flares up in several social media posts questioning whether the map is really a PSA 10.
Paul purchased the card in a record-breaking private deal confirmed by Guinness World Records in 2022, paying an estimated $5.3 million after exchanging for a lower-rated "Illustrator" card and cash. Since then, the card has been duplicated as branded props, appearing in a custom chain during wrestling events and interviews, turning a niche collectible into a mainstream performance. Although one of Paul's haters hooked up on the map when it was at the Fanatics Fest exhibition, eventually killing it in the case.
The planned auction will presumably be held by Goldin Auctions, a platform known for its high-profile sales of sports and trading cards. Pre-sales reviews are expected in January 2026, with trading likely stretched to February, and the final price will include buyer premiums at the time of determining the official results.
This structure is important for forecast markets. Polymarket contracts are settled based on Goldin's final selling price, including fees, by the end of February 2026. If the auction does not end by that date or the thresholds are not reached, the contracts are resolved accordingly — giving traders a certain window but leaving plenty of room for drama.
Proponents point to broader trends favoring alternative assets. The high-value Pokémon cards have shown impressive long-term value growth, and supporters argue that the rarity combined with a global fanatic base creates a stable demand. Paul himself publicly formed collectibles as culturally significant custodians of value, especially for young buyers who were less enthusiastic about traditional markets.
Skeptics, on the other hand, question the extent to which the current enthusiasm reflects the intrinsic value and how much the amplification of the celebrity. They argue that Paul's visibility and his ability to keep the map in the public field of always view can do the same job as the rarity itself. Polymarket's falling odds at higher price levels suggest that many traders share this caveat.
The online discussion added another layer. Social media messaging, memes, and even map-relating token novels have spread widely, turning the upcoming auction into an event encompassing collectibles, online culture, and speculative finance. For better or worse, the card now exists in the same discourse as in the plastic limiter.
Beyond price speculation and enthusiasm for the prediction market, Logan Paul's "Pikachu Illustrator" card also carries an unresolved dispute related to his involvement in the Liquid Marketplace, a trading platform launched in 2022 that sought to fractionate ownership into high-pred assets.
Paul promoted "Pikachu Illustrator" as Liquid Marketplace's flagship offering, encouraging users to buy fractional tokens representing partial economic participation in the card. The presentation was based on the "democratization" of access to elite collectibles, which would otherwise remain inaccessible to most investors.
However, the platform quickly found itself linked to complaints from users who claimed to have been blocked from accounts and unable to access the funds after Paul redeemed the card from the platform. Token holders said that while Paul regained full ownership, the promised redemption payments were delayed or unavailable. A short post on X from a user under the name Loki about the situation went viral this week, collecting over 19,000 likes and 1,1 thousand reposts.
Paul addressed the situation in a post on X on Christmas Eve, offering to assure users that they were affected by the platform's problems. “For those who have suffered and can't withdraw their funds: Know that I'm actively working with Liquid Marketplace to help ensure that those funds can be released in the near future, as planned when I bought Illustrator in May 2024,” he said. The post also contains a Community Note that notes that Paul is a co-founder of Liquid Marketplace.
If the dispute is resolved and the intended issues are resolved, and the auction falls into the range of $7 million to $12 million indicated by Palu, this will strengthen the status of the card as the undisputed heavyweight Pokémon collection in the world. A lower score can lower expectations, while a higher score will set new standards in the trading card market.
In any case, the Odds of Polymarket suggest that one thing is clear: traders expect Pikachu Illustrator to change hands for a staggering amount, even if they share watching how impressive this final figure will be. The auction is now a classic example of how far nostalgia, the rarity and power of the stars can push a single piece of cardboard.