When my research in crypto market the Man, this week has been rough for all of us holding BTC. Watching it drop below $73k (even touching ~$72.8k lows) after everything felt so bullish earlier... it hurts. Liquidations everywhere, Fear & Greed at extreme fear levels (~15–17), and the whole market feels like it's bleeding out with equities and risk assets tanking too. If you're feeling frustrated or second-guessing your positions right now you're not alone. I've been there too.
But let's zoom out and look at the real data instead of just staring at red candles:
Price Action & Structure
We're in a classic correction after the big run-up. BTC broke below some key supports (~$80k), but it's now testing the $72k–$74k zone hard — this was previous resistance turned support earlier in the cycle.
Weekly RSI is neutral/low (~45–50), no crazy oversold yet, but no bearish divergence screaming "crash more" either.
If we hold $72k–$73k and start bouncing, this could be a healthy reset before the next leg up. Break below $70k cleanly? Then yeah, more pain possible toward $65k–$68k (some on-chain clusters there).
On-Chain Reality Check
Glassnode/CryptoQuant showing mixed but not panic-level signals: Long-term holders still accumulating in spots, exchange outflows in some periods (HODLing vibe).
Supply in profit vs loss converging — historically, when these lines get close, bottoms have formed in past cycles (not always instantly, but it's a sign).
MVRV Z-Score low (undervalued territory compared to peaks), and short-term holders are barely in profit — less aggressive selling likely if sentiment flips.
What's Driving This Mess (Macro Link)
Geopolitical noise, tech/equity weakness (Microsoft earnings hurt), and thin weekend liquidity making everything worse. No single "killer" event, just rotation out of risk.
But Fed rate cut hopes still linger for 2026, and if equities stabilize, crypto usually follows.
My real talk: This feels like the "shakeout" phase where weak hands get flushed, and strong ones load up quietly. Not calling bottom tomorrow markets can stay irrational longer than we can stay solvent but the data isn't screaming full bear market yet. If you're long-term bullish on BTC (like me), these dips are painful gifts if you have dry powder.
What about you? Are you buying this dip, holding tight, or waiting for more confirmation? Drop your honest thoughts below no judgment. Let's talk it out, maybe we all learn something. DYOR, manage risk (stops are your friend), and hang in there.