Bitcoin fell to $70,000 on Thursday, with
on-chain metrics and market flows signaling a structurally weaker
environment and global equities struggling for direction.
CryptoQuant’s latest weekly report suggests the current downturn reflects deeper market weakness rather than a routine correction.
The firm’s Bull Score Index has dropped to zero while bitcoin remains
significantly below its October peak, indicating that the market is
facing a shrinking buyer base and tightening liquidity rather than
digesting earlier gains.
Glassnode data supports this assessment, highlighting weak spot trading volumes and a widening demand vacuum.
The decline appears driven less by panic selling and more by reduced participation across the market.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,766, down 7.38% in the last 24 hours.
Institutional flows and US demand show clear reversal
Institutional flows have shifted sharply compared with last year.
US
spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds, which were net accumulators during
the same period in the prior year, have turned into net sellers.
The change has created a year-on-year demand gap measured in tens of thousands of bitcoin.
Market indicators tied to US investor behavior are also reflecting softer demand.
Historically, strong US spot demand has coincided with sustained bull-market cycles, but that trend is currently absent.
Liquidity trends further reinforce bearish signals.
Stablecoin expansion, which typically supports trading activity and risk appetite, has stalled.
Growth in the market capitalization of USDT has turned negative for the first time since 2023, according to CryptoQuant data.
Longer-term
apparent demand growth has also fallen sharply from last year’s highs,
pointing to fading participation rather than simply leveraged positions
being unwound.
From a technical standpoint,
bitcoin continues to trade below its 365-day moving average, with
on-chain valuation models placing major support between $70,000 and
$60,000.
Macro environment and policy uncertainty limit recovery hopes
Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly tracking high-beta technology stocks rather than functioning as a safe-haven asset.
Prediction
markets show traders largely expecting no change in Federal Reserve
policy at the April meeting, with only modest expectations for a rate
cut in June.
The outlook limits prospects for near-term liquidity relief.
Political developments have added another layer of uncertainty.
President
Donald Trump recently commented on his Federal Reserve nominee Kevin
Warsh, stating during an interview with NBC News that a Fed chair who
wanted to raise rates “would not have gotten the job,” tempering earlier
optimism surrounding central bank independence.
Market volatility persists
Price movements during US trading sessions have highlighted persistent weakness.
Bitcoin
fell into territory not seen since late 2024, slipping below prior
support levels before attempting short-lived rebounds.
Macro assets broadly lost momentum, with gold failing to maintain support above $5,000 and US equities opening lower.
Trading firm QCP Capital noted ongoing macro uncertainty, writing, “Crypto remains volatile.”
The
firm added, “In macro, the shutdown overhang has faded, but the key
takeaway is how quickly fiscal standoffs can return. Homeland Security
funding was only extended through Feb. 13, keeping another deadline risk
in play.”
Meanwhile, trader CJ signaled the
possibility of further declines of roughly $10,000, though potential
relief rallies could occur first.
Analysts
also pointed to bitcoin’s 200-week exponential moving average near
$68,000 as a potential safety net, as total 24-hour crypto liquidations
surpassed $800 million, underscoring elevated market volatility.