Bitcoin (BTC) has had a much weaker start to the current bear cycle compared to 2022, and indicators point to deepening pressure.
CryptoQuant's "Bear Market Assessment" report dated February 4, 2026, revealed that on-chain data now clearly confirms a bear market regime. According to the report, Bitcoin peaked at around $126,000 in early October, and at that time, the Bull Score Index was 80, giving a strong bullish signal. However, after the liquidation wave on October 10th, the situation completely reversed, and the index fell to zero.
While the Bitcoin price is currently trading around $75,000, there has also been a significant break in institutional demand. US spot ETFs, which were buyers of 46,000 BTC during the same period last year, have become net sellers of 10,600 BTC in 2026. This shift created a demand gap of 56,000 BTC compared to last year, making the selling pressure permanent.
US Demand and Liquidity Are Alarming
Another noteworthy element in the report was the Coinbase Premium data. The rate has remained negative since mid-October. While it was noted that historically sustainable bull markets have been supported by strong US demand and a positive premium, the current outlook points in the opposite direction.
The picture is also weakening on the liquidity front. USDT's 60-day market capitalization growth narrowed by approximately $133 million, marking the first contraction since October 2023. Furthermore, the year-long apparent spot demand increase plummeted by 93%, falling from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC.
Technical Structure Open to Further Decline
On the technical analysis side, Bitcoin fell below the 365-day moving average, losing critical support for the first time since March 2022. Following this break, BTC lost 23% of its value in 83 days. In the same period, the decline at the beginning of 2022 was only 6%. According to CryptoQuant, this difference indicates that momentum is deteriorating much faster in the current cycle.
The report warns that with the loss of on-chain support levels, the $70,000 to $60,000 range could be a potential next stop for Bitcoin.
