Basically the entire bottom of the range I always expected would near the end of the current downturn ($70-74k).
While we are HEAVILY due for some relief any moment now, it's still wild to see so much weakness.
Still so much sell pressure after what we have already had.
If I didn't know any better I would say it always looks and feels like a bearm...
Well likely because it is and we've been in one. The only difference here is that I believe this one will be shorter and less severe (aka more like 2019 vs 2018/2022).
I know most groups are either extremely persistent in calling this still a bull market and the other group in calling this a bear market.
I don't really like to put things in terms of the bulls vs the bear.
For me we're somewhere in between. A quicker bearmarket (the current downturn) but that won't last 2 years either.
Yet I always believe the markets still require study on a month by month base. Not necessarily each day but still further action on what it's telling us.
My target has always been 70-74k in this downturn and yes we'll find a local bottom here soon.
BUT I'm not arrogant either to say we couldn't go lower. Or we really HAVE TO.
In the markets there is no we can't and we won't. I still don't like the current weakness.
Meaning my thesis on a local bottom bounce is still here. But without significant signs of strength on the next bounce there's no guarantee we'll hold here.
The markets owns us nothing.
Yet I'm still hopeful for the market. I know these times are tough and full of dispair but these phases are also a natural part of the market.
As there are times we seem like we go endlessly down today. So will there be times it seems we go endlessly up (at least for Bitcoin. Alts need a more nuanced take and inspection)
We take the market how it comes. Both good and bad.