Trade idea — Setup
Enter a tactical long on BTCUSDT perpetuals at market or limit near current price $61,648 (mark/spot reference). Use cross or isolated margin per your preference; recommended leverage 3–5x given current volatility and user low-risk profile.
Position sizing
Risk 1% of account equity on this trade. Calculate position notional = (Account Equity × 1%) × (Entry Price / Distance_to_stop). Example: with $10,000 equity and 3% distance to stop, position notional ≈ (100 × 61648 / (0.03×61648)) = $3,333 notional → ≈0.054 BTC.
Entry
Primary: market or limit at current price ~$61.6k. Stagger 30–50% of size on first fill and scale in remaining on a 2–3% pullback to reduce execution risk.
Stop-loss
Hard stop at $57,000 (~7.6% below current price). Rationale: sits below 12h lower BOLL (~61,126 lower bound nearby) and a visibility cushion under short-term support (technical support ~59.3k), but protects against daily trend continuation. For tighter risk (smaller drawdown), set stop at $59,300 (~3.8% downside) with smaller position size.
Targets & management
Short-term take-profit 1: first partial at $69,000 (near 38.2% fib / intra-range resistance).
Medium target: $76,000–76,300 (resistance cluster / previous EMA zone). Use a plan to scale out: take 30% at first target, 40% at medium, trail remainder with a 2× ATR (use ATR ~2,000) or move stop to breakeven once position gains ~3–4%.
Risk controls & execution rules
Leverage 3–5x max. If using tighter stop (≈3.8%), reduce leverage so max loss ≈1% equity.
Set a hard on-exchange stop order and a separate trailing plan; avoid relying solely on mental stops.
Cap time-in-trade: if price hasn't reached first partial TP within 14 days, cut position to reduce event risk.
Monitor funding: current funding is negative (~-0.000152) — shorts pay longs (advantageous) but average funding skew and recent large OI suggest caution; if funding flips strongly positive, reduce size.
Why this matters (context)
Market sentiment is deeply risk-off (Fear & Greed ~9) with heavy recent outflows and oversold momentum (RSI/KDJ extreme on multiple timeframes). That increases probability of volatile mean-reversion rallies but also risk of trend continuation. The plan uses low leverage, defined stop, and staged entries to capture a bounce while limiting downside.