1. Trump's analysis of the 'Greenland Tariff' against Europe
Trump announced a major policy on January 17 via social media, directly impacting global market sentiment:
Core content: From February 1, 2026, the United States will impose a **10%** tariff on all goods imported from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland.
Upgrade threat: If an agreement regarding the 'comprehensive purchase of Greenland' by the United States is not reached by June 1, tariffs will increase to 25%.
Macroeconomic impact:
Risk aversion sentiment rises: Such extreme trade protectionist policies exacerbate geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Traditional markets (especially European stock markets) are under pressure, and some safe-haven funds may flow into gold or Bitcoin.
Dollar fluctuations: Tariff policies typically benefit the dollar in the short term (due to expected repatriation), but if a global trade war arises, it may lead to long-term credit concerns, thereby benefiting cryptocurrencies with 'digital gold' attributes.
2. On-chain whales and institutional trends (BTC & ETH)
According to monitoring data as of January 19, the current on-chain institutions and whales show the following characteristics:
Bitcoin ($BTC ):
Accumulation in high-level fluctuations: BTC is currently fluctuating in the range of 90,000 to 95,000. On-chain data shows that some 'legendary' whales (holding for more than 5 years) have slightly reduced their holdings, but spot ETF institutions (such as BlackRock, Fidelity) still show significant purchasing and replenishing actions when the price retreats to around 90,000.
Exchange premium: Due to concerns arising from tariff policies, the premium on domestic exchanges in the United States (such as Coinbase) has slightly rebounded, indicating strength in the US market.
Ethereum ($ETH ):
Exchange rate rebounds from the bottom: The ETH/BTC exchange rate shows very strong support around 0.032−0.035. Whales are making large-scale staking through protocols like Lido, indicating confidence in long-term holding.
Institutional layout for L2: Institutional funds are beginning to shift towards the leading shards of Layer 2 networks like Base and Arbitrum, seeking higher Beta returns.
3. Analysis of trends in late January and February
Affected by macro policies and the halving cycle effect, the expected trends are as follows:
Late January: Wide fluctuations. The market needs to digest the forex fluctuations brought about by Trump's tariff policy. BTC may repeatedly 'wash out' between 88,000 and 98,000, clearing leverage.
February: Event-driven rise.
February 1 tariff officially takes effect as a key time node. If the market is fully priced by then, a 'bad news is out' rally may occur.
Policy dividends: 2026 is viewed as the 'golden window' for US cryptocurrency policy. As the SEC's regulatory style shifts towards 'industry participation', February may welcome new favorable rumors regarding cryptocurrency market structure legislation.
Target price: If BTC can stabilize above the psychological level of 100,000, the February target looks towards $115,000 - 120,000.
4. Recommended 'ambush' altcoin sectors
In the current macro environment, it is recommended to focus on the following three sectors with strong narrative support:
Sector representative cryptocurrencies (recommended attention) Reason RWA (real-world assets) ONDO, MKR, PENDLE Tariffs and fluctuations in US Treasury yields have led to a surge in demand for compliant on-chain interest-bearing assets from institutions. Infrastructure / L2 SOL, ARB, HYPE Solana's activity continues to lead, and Hyperliquid (HYPE) performs strongly as an emerging decentralized trading protocol. AI + decentralized computing TAO, RNDR, FET AI remains the definitive main line for the entire industry by 2026, and is less directly affected by trade tariffs.
Real-time information, pay attention and like!
