Trump’s message to Canada isn’t just noise — it’s a pressure move aimed indirectly at China. The fear? If Canada cuts a special trade deal with Beijing, Chinese products could slip into the U.S. through Canada and bypass American tariffs. From Trump’s angle, that turns Canada into a backdoor — and U.S. trade protection breaks down.
The risk for Canada is huge. Nearly 75% of Canadian exports go straight to the U.S., over $450B a year. A 100% tariff would instantly price Canadian goods out of the American market. We’ve already seen how painful tariffs can be: back in 2018–2019, tariffs of just 10–25% slashed steel exports by 41% and aluminum by 19%, disrupting billions in trade and costing jobs.
Now scale that to 100%. Autos, energy, steel, aluminum — everything is on the line.
At the same time, Canada is trying to reduce dependence on the U.S. by rebuilding trade links with China, especially in agriculture, EVs, and batteries. Economically smart. Politically dangerous.
Canada may be stuck in the middle of the U.S.–China trade war — and this clash could move markets faster than most expect.
What’s your take — bluff or real threat? 👀
