This is a great ALTS/BTC chart ($TOTAL3ESBTC). It excludes stablecoins and is priced in BTC.

Obviously, you want your Alt to outpace BTC to be considered a proper altseason, without the noise of stablecoins, and that's what this chart shows.

I have no doubt we will see another altseason.

---->The big question is WHEN? <----

Compare the magnitude of 2017 and 2021 altseasons with the most recent 5 years and it becomes obvious what altcoin holders are looking for.

Here's the facts regarding this chart:
• The chart has been dropping for 5 years (the major, descending trend line has not been broken in 5 years). Hence, no MAJOR altseason since 2021.
• The biggest recent "Altseason" was at the very end of 2024. You can see this reflected by a small pump, but then it got rejected from the diagonal trend line. It wasn't a full-blown Altseason like in 2017 and 2021.
• Recently, the chart is consolidating into a tighter & tighter range, suggesting a breakout move soon. But which direction?

I drew 3 scenarios (A, B, C).

Will it break up immediately (Scenario A), or drop down to the yellow support and then bounce (Scenario B), or will it drop all way down to the blue support before finding a bottom and heading up (Scenario C)?

If you're holding alts right now, you are counting on Scenario A to occur, otherwise your alt will likely bleed until the breakout in Scenarios B or C occur.

I personally think it will be B or C, based on where BTC is in its cycle (I think there's a decent chance the top is in), and due to the risk-off nature of the general economy (high Fed Funds Rate and low ISM PMI).

Obviously, people holding alts think the BTC top is not in and are counting on that fact, because if BTC doesn't pump to new ATHs, then alts won't experience a massive altseason like in 2017 and 2021.

Also, worth noting is the diminishing nature of the altseason from 2017 to 2021. It's possible that the next altseason could be smaller than 2021's, but this is not a lot of data points so it's just an observation. I'd still expect the next proper altseason to be larger than what we saw at the end of 2024.

imo, what needs to happen for a proper, massive altseason?

I think we need to see:
1. A fully risk-on environment (Fed Funds rate dropping-- perhaps this will happen later in 2026), and
2. The "Business Cycle" (ISM's PMI) well into positive territory (it's currently negative, and close to neutral).

See the second chart for the ISM's PMI as it relates to past crypto altcoin cycles. It becomes pretty clear that the current environment is not like the past Altseasons. The high Fed Funds rate doesn't help.

What do you think? Scenario A, B or C?