itcoin’s $150,000 forecast slash proves the institutional “sure thing” is actually a high-stakes gamble for 2026
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Bitcoin’s $150,000 forecast slash proves the institutional “sure thing” is actually a high-stakes gamble for 2026
Yet, new data shows $50 billion in ETF inflows could fundamentally break the four-year cycle and trap retail bears.
Liam 'Akiba' Wright
Jan. 23, 2026 at 10:35 pm UTC
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Cover art/illustration via CryptoSlate. Image includes combined content which may include AI-generated content.
Bitcoin price forecasts for 2026 from major banks, asset managers, and market commentators span a wide range, roughly from $75,000 to $250,000, with many targets clustering in the low-to-mid six figures.
The wide range reflects uncertainty about whether institutional demand can offset softer retail participation and whether Bitcoin’s macro sensitivity to liquidity conditions reasserts itself during 2026.
Standard Chartered cut its 2026 forecast to $150,000 in December 2025, down from a previous $300,000 target.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at the bank, said the pace would be slower than expected, with the bull case increasingly dependent on ETF buying rather than an expansion of corporate treasury purchases.
Bernstein maintains a $150,000 target for 2026 with a $200,000 peak in 2027, projecting an elongated bull cycle where institutional buying offsets retail panic selling and breaks the traditional four-year pattern.
JPMorgan established a $170,000 fair value estimate within six to twelve months using a gold-based framework that adjusts for Bitcoin’s higher volatility and risk profile.
Tom Lee of Fundstrat projected $200,000 this month, while Michael Saylor of Strategy has discussed a $150,000 level as a plausible outcome under continued institutional adoption.
Carol Alexander of the University of Sussex expects a high-volatility range between $75,000 and $150,000 with a $110,000 center, representing one of the more conservative views among widely cited forecasts.
Charles Hoskinson of Cardano has floated a $250,000 scenario, arguing constrained supply could meet accelerating institutional demand.
Bull case for Bitcoin
The bull case for $150,000 to $250,000 rests on institutions absorbing available supply through ETFs, wealth platforms, and longer-horizon allocation strategies.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has estimated a base case of roughly $15 billion in crypto ETF inflows for 2026, with upside scenarios as high as $40 billion if market conditions improve.
Galaxy Digital’s 2026 outlook forecasts U.S. spot crypto ETF net inflows could exceed $50 billion as wealth management platforms and model portfolios broaden access.
Early 2026 flow data also showed a strong start, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs drawing about $1.1 billion across the first two trading days, including a roughly $697 million net inflow on the second trading day. Though that was quickly wiped out across the next few weeks.
