Tensions are escalating in Washington, with the likelihood of a US government shutdown before January 31, 2026, surging to 77% according to Polymarket data. This reflects the growing unease surrounding federal budget negotiations. President Donald Trump has warned that a shutdown is likely if a budget agreement isn't reached soon.
The threat of a shutdown has significant implications for the financial markets. Historically, prolonged shutdowns have delayed important policy decisions and legal actions. With a 78% probability assigned to the likelihood of a shutdown, markets are bracing for potential impacts on US Treasury interest rates and overall market volatility.
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