Bigcoin

Looking at this crypto VC landscape for 2025, I see a very clear point that large sums of money are no longer 'gambling on narratives', but are looking for financial infrastructure that can truly operate.

Top 1: Finance/Banking and Prediction Markets
When institutional capital starts to move on-chain, they are not concerned with memecoins or short-term trends, but are focused on sectors that can directly replace or complement the traditional financial system.

Now sharing with you a bit of highlighted information that I compiled from CZ at the Davos forum, where influential figures like Trump and Elon Musk gather. It may sound disjointed, but when put together, it is very 'CZ style' – pragmatic and directly addressing the structure of the system.
In my opinion, the most notable point is how CZ views payments. He acknowledges that the payments sector is facing many issues, but the way forward is not for crypto to 'smash' TradFi, but for both sides to be forced to integrate with each other. Crypto cannot naturally replace the entire traditional payment system, but it will serve as a new layer of infrastructure to make payments faster, cheaper, and more flexible. This perspective is quite different from the narrative 'crypto will kill banks' that many often hear.

The likelihood of the U.S. government shutting down this week is at a record high, and looking broader, the story is not just about short-term politics.
Let me add a little more to give you a clearer picture of the U.S. government shutdown and why the market always reacts quite sensitively to this event.
Essentially, a shutdown occurs when Congress fails to pass a budget, causing many federal agencies to halt operations. Employees go without pay, public services are disrupted, and important economic data is delayed in publication. It may seem like just an administrative issue, but its repercussions lie in trust.

This year has been stormy for BTC, as the recent winter storm 'Fernan' in the US has caused many Bitcoin mines to temporarily halt operations.

In which Foundry USA (the largest mining pool in the US) has seen a reduction of about 60% in hashrate in just a few days. It is estimated that nearly 200 EH/s went offline, causing the Bitcoin block creation rate to slow down to an average of about 12 minutes/block instead of the usual 10 minutes.

The main reason is widespread power outages and miners actively reducing electricity consumption to avoid putting pressure on the power grid, as more than 1 million people in the US were affected by the outages.

Currently, the S&P 500 (an index representing the US stock market) is showing a rather negative pattern in the short term.

On a larger timeframe, the S&P 500 is still in a long-term uptrend (the red trend line). However, in the short term, the price has not maintained a strong upward momentum, instead moving sideways at high levels, which is a common sign of a distribution phase, meaning that large institutions are gradually selling to retail investors.

Grayscale has just taken a new step by filing for the launch of an ETF tracking BNB with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This is a signal that BNB is gradually coming into the ‘sights’ of institutional capital in the U.S. market.

Grayscale enters the BNB ETF race with a new filing submitted to the SEC for the code “GBNB”
According to the registration documents, the product named Grayscale BNB ETF will directly hold BNB, the native token of the BNB Chain. Grayscale describes BNB as a digital asset built on an open-source cryptographic protocol, operating on the BNB Smart Chain, and serving as the underlying asset for the fund's shares.

At the present time, I still hold the view that BTC has not entered a clear reversal phase, although many are feeling quite optimistic as the price continuously retests the high area.

The reality is that BTC has not had a true reclaim of the Weekly 50 EMA – a critically important milestone in every cycle. Instances where the price touches the EMA and is then rejected, as just happened, are often not signs of strength, but rather, they are frequently a psychological trap to draw more people into the market $BTC

The global cryptocurrency market has quickly regained its green color after U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington has reached a long-term agreement with NATO regarding Greenland, while eliminating the possibility of applying new tax rates expected to take effect from the beginning of February. This move is seen as a step to reduce macro pressure on risky assets.
Before the information was announced, both the stock market and crypto were trading cautiously. $BTC fell deep into the 87,200 USD zone, while Bitcoin ETF funds and $ETH trading in the U.S. recorded a net capital outflow of about 713 million USD in just one day, reflecting investors' risk-averse sentiment before the risk of escalating trade tensions.

In the Big Ideas 2026 report, ARK forecasts that the total crypto market capitalization could reach ~28 trillion USD by 2030. Bitcoin alone is expected to account for about 16 trillion USD, thus remaining the largest pillar of the entire ecosystem $BTC
The remaining market capitalization does not come from short-term narratives, but mainly from:
Smart contract platforms
On-chain financial activity
Tokenized securities (RWA)
Decentralized applications (dApps)

If you look back at the USDC.D + USDT.D chart, you will see a quite important point.

The support zone I mentioned a few weeks ago is still holding very strong. For a long time, stablecoin dominance has been moving sideways, accumulating tightly right above that support zone and has not been broken, not deeply penetrated, indicating that there is still a lot of money standing outside.
And now, after a sufficiently long accumulation phase, stablecoin dominance is beginning to enter an upward expansion phase. This essentially means that:

Chainlink has just announced that U.S. Equities Streams is a data feed for U.S. stocks & ETFs operating 24/5, for the first time bringing all U.S. stock market data to DeFi in a meaningful way. $LINK
Not only during official trading hours but also encompassing pre-market, after-hours, and even overnight, meaning on-chain can monitor U.S. stocks almost continuously like TradFi.
The key point lies in the quality of the data. This feed not only has prices but also includes bid/ask, volume, market status, and essential indicators to build real financial products. This paves the way for a series of use cases that DeFi previously found challenging to standardize: perpetual U.S. stocks on-chain, prediction markets, synthetic stocks, stock-collateralized lending, structured products, and generally all areas of RWA related to equities.

In his latest post, Vitalik has clearly shown support for SocialFi.
Vitalik made it clear that starting in 2026, he will fully return to decentralized social networks. The reason is not due to trends or narratives, but because he believes that to have a better society, we need better mass communication tools. These platforms should prioritize quality information, valuable arguments, help people find common ground, and serve the long-term interests of users, rather than maximizing short-term interactions like clicks, rage, or drama.

Have you noticed the interesting legal signals from the U.S. lately?
The new CFTC chair has stated that the U.S. Congress is very close to passing the 'Digital Asset Market Clarity Act,' a legal framework aimed at clarifying who regulates what in the crypto market.
Their message is quite clear: the U.S. wants to keep the digital asset market domestic rather than pushing innovation overseas and will build a suitable legal framework, rather than stifling the industry.

Below is the chart discussing the Fear & Greed Index of Bitcoin, measuring market sentiment from fear to greed. Currently, there is a quite notable signal: the 30-day moving average has just crossed above the 90-day moving average, also known as the Golden Cross in terms of sentiment.

In the past, similar times often appeared after strong corrections, when much of the market was still fearful, but selling pressure had gradually weakened. At this point, prices do not need to rise immediately, but sentiment has stopped worsening. This is often the stage where smart money begins to return, while retail remains skeptical. $ZEC

Currently, BTC is gradually heading towards the 76k region, and a very noteworthy technical detail is that $BTC was just rejected on the first retest of the Weekly 50 EMA.
For new members, simply understand this:
The Weekly 50 EMA is a very important moving average on the weekly chart, often serving as a boundary between technical retracement and the real trend.
The important thing lies in the price behavior before forming the bottom of a bear market. History shows that BTC rarely just retests the Weekly 50 EMA once and then plummets straight to the bottom.

There are several macro news pieces pieced together, looking disjointed at first, but when placed alongside the crypto market right now, it makes sense for the price to dump too.
First, there is the matter of Jerome Powell directly attending the debate at the Supreme Court regarding Donald Trump's efforts to dismiss Lisa Cook (the governor of the FED).
This is not a personal drama, but a much larger story: the independent boundaries of the Fed. When the Fed Chairman has to appear in the Supreme Court, it means that the monetary policy story has been pulled directly into the political center. For the financial markets, this is always a sensitive signal, as it touches on the thing the market hates most: institutional uncertainty.